WASHINGTON, June 21 (UPI) -- As demonstrated by the events of the past few weeks, climaxing with the gruesome beheading of Paul Johnson last Friday, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is facing uncertain times.
Islamist fundamentalists referring to themselves as al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, are calling for the overthrow of the Saudi royal family. Following two months of attacks on foreigners and clashes with security forces, the insurgents, communicating via websites, have promised "a bloody" year ahead.
Understandably, the kidnapping and senseless slaughter of expatriate workers is fueling a deep sense of apprehension, prompting the beginning of an exodus among the country's large expatriate community. There are about 35,000 Americans and roughly 30,000 Britons in the country, part of a foreign work force estimated to be around 5.5 million, the vast majority being South and Southeast Asian.
Amid the ambiguity the country is going through there are, according to reports from Arab officials and recent travelers to the kingdom, three certainties. Unfortunately, they are far from uplifting.
First. A state of siege mentality appears to have developed. Travelers report that on recent visits roadblocks and police checkpoints have become current in the capital, Riyadh. This is unprecedented in a country that used to pride itself on its strict security.
The fact that even official government vehicles are stopped and searched says a university professor, "leads one to conclude that the authorities are not quite sure whom to trust."
A number of people familiar with the inner workings of the kingdom confirm that fundamentalists have found sympathy and support not only inside the security forces, but with some members of the royal family as well. There are some 6,000 princes in the House of Saud, and some, according to more than one source, are financing, supporting and abetting the jihadis.
Second: There is a sense of growing fear in the country that "something big" is about to unfold. A fatalistic "wait and see" attitude has ensued among some, while others are not taking any chances. Journalists in the region confirm that a number of residents have started sending their families to neighboring Bahrain and Dubai.
According to one high-level Lebanese government official, Saudi's King Fahd has reserved several hundreds of rooms for himself and his entourage in a posh Lebanese mountain resort overlooking Beirut. The reason is that the monarch intends to spend his summer vacation in the Mediterranean's gentler clime. Indeed, Saudis and other Gulf Arabs have in the past vacationed in the milder Lebanese mountains. But given what is unfolding in Saudi Arabia, one may question the timing of the vacation plans.
Third: There is a growing feeling in the kingdom that this crisis will have to get much worse before it gets better. Some speak of the fear that "much more blood will be spilled." One foreign oil executive commented on the sense of worried anticipation prevailing among his Saudi staff. They behave almost as if they know that something bad is about to happen.
Following last week's turn of events a number of observers are beginning to ask the inevitable questions; is the kingdom on the edge of a de-facto civil war? Is this the start of the end of the royal House of Saud?
The answer to both questions is not necessarily "yes." Analysts believe there remains a window of opportunity during which time the crown prince can restore order and address the crisis, provided he acts quickly and decisively. Crown Prince Abdullah faces three uncertainties, but also three solutions.
First, the short-term solution: Crown Prince Abdullah and the leadership must emerge from their collective state of denial and publicly admit the country is facing its most serious crisis ever. They must recognize that the terror threat is homegrown and not an outside plot.
The crown prince must take full control and act in a determined manner. He needs to ensure that key ministries will follow orders to act in a unified way against the insurgents. If this means replacing key ministers who would show more loyalty, he should do so, replacing them with younger, more energetic ones, who are more adaptable to change.
Additionally, the leadership should recognize the reasons driving the crisis and outline a national plan to help appease the situation. They should open up to the population, including the exiled community, requesting their support in passing much-needed reforms.
At the same time, they must realize that use of force alone will not solve the problem. The "iron fist" response promised by the crown prince should also accompany a program of intense social, religious and educational reforms that will help change the climate of incertitude in the kingdom. The program must offer the possibility of jobs to graduating Saudi nationals.
Second, the medium-term solution: Initiate immediate plans to introduce change in the country's theocratic-dominated education system. Take the education system away from Wahhabi control. Modernize the curricula in schools and universities that currently concentrate heavily on Islamic studies. End the practice of teaching hatred of the West. Madrassas and their financing must be strictly controlled and moderated, as must the sermons of imams.
A June 15 report titled "Update on the Global Campaign Against Terrorist Financing," sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, stated: "We find it regrettable and unacceptable that since September 11, 2001, we know of not a single Saudi donor of funds to terrorist groups who has been publicly punished -- despite Ambassador Bandar's assertion ... that Saudi Arabia would prosecute the guilty to the full extent of the law."
Third, the long-term solution: Introduce an ambitious project to encourage a worldwide program for the reformation of Islam, possibly through the re-introduction of "Ijtihad," or hermeneutics, (the study of methodological interpretation of the Holy Koran). This is what Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf called "Enlightened Moderation."
As the "Custodian of the two holy mosques" in Mecca and Medina," the Saudi leadership must use its influence to convene a conference to discuss the issues affecting Islam today. They should seek the active support of every moderate authority in the Muslim world. Use the Organization of Islamic States as the driving vehicle to help bring about change.
These are unprecedented steps for Saudi Arabia and for Islam needed in a time of grave crisis. Such a project will not be without its critics, and the Saudi leadership must show it is strong enough to face the challenges head-on. The process will undoubtedly be slow, long and painful, fraught with danger and detractors, but the alternative is going to provide far greater uncertainties and perils, for both Saudi Arabia and Islam.
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