WASHINGTON, April 29 (UPI) -- Thai security forces engaged in fierce gun battles Wednesday with Islamic militants, killing about 100 suspected youths in a series of fire fights in southern Thailand.
Worried that news of the clashes could negatively affect the country's tourism industry, Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was careful to place the blame on local gangs of youth, and not connect the clashes to al-Qaida or its affiliates. This contradicts what "many officials fear," report terrorism analysts M.J. Gohel and Sajjan M. Gohel, who are with the Asia Pacific Foundation.
In a report issued Wednesday, the London-based international policy assessment group reported that "international militant groups may be behind the attacks and are contributing to increasing tensions" in the area.
If confirmed, this would fall more in line with the belief that al-Qaida and groups connected to Osama bin Laden's terror operations are increasingly active in Southeast Asia.
Reports from the region have been foggy at best, with police saying that groups of youths on motorcycles launched a series of attacks on police stations.
What is clear, however, is that the fighting, which the Gohel report says is "a serious escalation of the violence that began in early January," would seem to indicate that the groups involved in this latest round of fighting are attempting to obtain automatic weapons. Last January's attack was on a military arsenal. Tuesday's attempted raids were on police stations. The fact the insurgents were armed only with small guns, machetes and knives would indicate their intentions were indeed to obtain automatic arms from the police.
Tuesday's attacks took place in three separate provinces, heavily dominated by Muslims; Yala, Pattani and Songkhla. However, given that the attacks were coordinated, makes it highly unlikely that these would simply be the work of errant "youths."
Analysts believe the attacks could be the work of Thai separatists, though security officials, says Gohel "have theorized that Jemaah Islamiyah also might have lent support to the local militant groups."
That is not to say that Thai secessionist groups do not exist. There are many movements such as the New Pattani United Liberation Organization, Barisan Revolusi Nasional, and the Gerakan Mujahadeen Islam Pattani that are active in various degrees.
Southern Thailand is predominantly Muslim. The area borders on Malaysia, itself a Muslim country. Following the recent clashes, Malaysia said it closed its border with Thailand.
This move, and a warning issued by Muslim groups warning foreign tourists to stay away from Thailand will further contribute toward a decline in tourism-generated revenues. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -- or SARS -- scare in Asia, as well as a series of terrorist attacks in Asia, have in the past few years contributed in keeping holiday-makers and their dollars away.
Since the Sept. 11, 2001, deadly attacks on the United States, which saw the beginning of the "war on terrorism," bombing campaigns have not spared Asia.
-- December 11: 2002, a huge explosion in a Bali nightclub killed about 200 people, injuring dozens.
-- March 4, 2003: 21 people were killed and 150 wounded in Davao, in the Philippines.
-- May 11, 2003: 9 killed in Koronadal, Philippines.
-- August 5, 2003, 12 killed and 150 injured in an attack on the J.W. Marriott Hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia. Additionally, the area has witnessed a series of smaller bombings, arson and raids on police stations.
Al-Qaida and its fundamentalist allies have been far from dormant in the region. The man known as Hambali, (Riduan Isamuddin), was captured there in August 2003 in a CIA raid. Hambali was chief operations planner for the Jemaah Islamiyah, a group closely affiliated with al-Qaida.
Intelligence sources believe he was planning to attack "soft" tourist sites in Thailand and other countries in the region. Some believe Hambali had planned the Bali bombing while in Thailand. However, the Asia Pacific Foundation reports that Thaksin "had lashed out at claims that Hambali planned the October 2002 Bali nightclub blast on Thai soil."
The Gohel reports states: "The Thai military is monitoring an al-Qaida linked group that operates in the southern part of the country. The Guragan Mujahedin Islam Pattani, a 40-member Muslim militant group, was responsible for a whole spate of attacks in Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat provinces in the last year and a half.
"It has been said that a key member, Wae Ka Raeh, had trained and fought with al-Qaida in Afghanistan and was now in hiding in Malaysia's Terenganu state."
Having suffered setbacks in Europe it could well be that al-Qaida is now concentrating its efforts in Southeast Asia where the support of the local Muslim population could offer a more solid base of operations.
"The recent unraveling of involvement of Jemaah Islamiyah and its local allies, point to the growing threat of terrorism in the Southeast Asian Region," claims the Gohel report. "There is a substantial threat in all parts of Thailand," they report.
The London-based analysts cite as an example an event that transpired on June 13, 2003. Acting on information received from U.S. investigators, Thai authorities, claims the report, "seized a large amount of radioactive material" which originated from Russian stockpiles and that was smuggled into Thailand through Laos. The material, Cesium-137, a radioactive derivative of nuclear power plants, was to be used "for a "dirty bomb."
Some analysts believe that Thailand and Southeast Asia, including parts of northern Australia, have been designated by al-Qaida as a "second front" in the war on terror.
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