WASHINGTON, April 13 (UPI) -- Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon arrived in Washington Tuesday on his ninth visit since taking office in March 2001, and it is by far his most crucial. He is seeking the Bush administration's support for his plan to dismantle the Jewish settlements in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, plus the removal of a number of settlements -- but by no means all -- in the West Bank.
Protecting the 7,500 Jewish settlers isolated in the midst of 1.5 million Gaza Palestinians has kept up to 50,000 Israeli troops tied down and in constant danger, causing some of the most violent clashes of the four-year intifada -- the Palestinian uprising. Under Sharon's scheme, the settlers will be indemnified for their loss and relocated in Israel. Some of the older settlements have, after all, been in existence for over 30 years. The Gaza border crossings will become more secure, and the army will be able to concentrate its manpower and its efforts in the West Bank.
Some Israeli analysts say Sharon's political future may depend on the outcome of his Washington visit. Support for the proposal in his Likud part is lukewarm, though the plan is expected to gain narrow approval in a party referendum on April 29. Some form of backing from the Bush administration will win over doubters and strengthen its chances of success. If Sharon is defeated in the referendum, the pressure on him to quit is likely to intensify -- to the benefit of his far-right political rival Binyamin Netanyahu.
So what can Sharon expect from President Bush? The Israelis have been selling the plan hard to Washington since February. On Monday, Bush cautiously called it "a positive development." Indeed, a unilateral Israeli offer of withdrawal -- as this is -- can hardly be described as anything else. Even so it's considered virtually impossible that the White House will give it a strong public endorsement because of the strings Sharon has attached to the plan.
Sharon wants advance U.S. approval to be able to retain six blocks of settlements (95,000 people) in the West Bank as part of any peace agreement with the Palestinians. Two of the settlements -- Ariel and Kiryat Arba -- lie deep in Palestinian territory. Sharon also wants to limit the number of Palestinian refugees who would have a right to return to the new Palestinian state. Either commitment by the United States, diplomatic sources in Washington point out, would be circumventing the currently dormant Middle East "road map," which calls for bilateral negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians on both those issues.
The "road map" was devised jointly by the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations. Israeli officials say Sharon's plan complements its terms. Bush called the plan "part of the 'road map' so that we can continue towards a two-state solution." In reality, however, Sharon's idea contradicts the "road map" in at least one important respect: the Palestinians -- recognized in the 1993 accord as a principal party in any peace negotiations -- were not consulted. In a UPI analysis Tuesday by Rebecca T. Michael, the spokesman of the Israeli embassy in Washington, Mark Regev, was quoted as saying that, "Sharon has tried to engage the new Palestinian prime minister Abu Ala (Ahmed Qureia) numerous times and he has never agreed to meet Sharon."
In addition, the Gaza plan does not correspond to any of the three main consecutive phases of the "road map" -- total withdrawal of Israeli security forces from both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; temporary agreement on borders for a Palestinian state, and establishment of the Palestinian state.
Despite the constraints on the Bush administration, European diplomats in Washington think it unlikely Sharon will leave the White House empty handed after his meeting with Bush Wednesday. The Bush administration's approach will be to fold the Gaza plan into the "road map" and declare a new start for the peace process. Visits by British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Thursday, and King Abdullah of Jordan next week will be billed as part of the renewed effort.
Sharon intends to go ahead with the Gaza withdrawal either way, according to an Israeli source, because he has very little choice. It was first proposed in response to strong pressure from the Israel Defense Forces high command, which wanted the government to produce an endgame to the present Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The source said Monday there was a widening rift between Sharon's Cabinet and the IDF senior generals over the government's apparent willingness to let the fighting drift on without a policy for bringing it to a conclusion. Sharon -- a former general -- hopes that pulling out of Gaza, the most dangerous area of military engagement, will placate them.
