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Analysis: Edwards poised for a late run

By LES KJOS

MIAMI, Feb. 26 (UPI) -- Trailing in two polls this week, Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., may be poised to mount another late rally and overtake John Kerry in Tuesday's Georgia primary.

Edwards overcame double-digit deficits to finish second to Kerry in the Iowa caucuses and the Wisconsin primary. He also came from behind to win in South Carolina, his only victory in this primary and caucus season in which the eventual winner will become the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party.

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A poll conducted by Zogby International for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB-TV Monday and Tuesday shows Kerry leading by 39 percent to 29 percent.

Another poll by the American Research Group gives Kerry the edge by 45 percent to 37 percent.

Pollster John Zogby said Edwards was making big gains during the two days of polling.

"Something is definitely happening here. I'm going to suggest that Edwards wins Georgia. He's a late closer," Zogby said.

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Edwards has accomplished his late surges in the past by attracting independents and Republicans, and that could happen again this time.

Turnout will be boosted by a non-binding referendum on the Georgia state flag, and Republicans will be allowed to vote on the Democratic ticket. President Bush is unopposed on the Republican ballot.

Twenty percent of those planning to vote told pollsters they are Republicans planning to vote on the Democratic side. Another 14 percent are independents.

Republicans give Edwards a 9-percent edge -- 25-16 -- and independents favor him by 29 percent -- 49-20.

It's a different story among the true Democrats. They give Kerry a 29-percent advantage at 49-20.

Kerry goes into Super Tuesday with 19 victories, one second-place and one third-place finish in the 21 primaries and caucuses to date. Edwards' only win was in South Carolina. Kerry has 735 delegates locked up compared to Edwards' total of 214. However, there are 1,151 delegates at stake Tuesday in 10 states, 86 in Georgia. A total of 2,162 are needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

Edwards is going to have to come up with some victories, and the most likely at this point will be in Georgia.

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Polls show that Kerry has commanding leads in California, New York and Ohio. He also is believed to have comfortable leads in his home state of Massachusetts along with Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont and Minnesota.

Edwards and Kerry are campaigning against President Bush instead of against each other.

The television commercials the two candidates are running rarely mention each other if at all, but they aren't shy about taking shots at the president.

During a Kerry campaign stop in Atlanta this week, Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., told reporters Kerry had a "32-year history of voting to cut defense programs and cut defense systems."

Kerry responded just as sharply.

"Saxby Chambliss, on the part of the president and his henchmen, decided today to question my commitment to the defense of our nation," Kerry responded.

"I understand why they want to attack people's patriotism, why they want to scare people, but I voted for the most significant defense budgets in our nation's history. And I have fought for veterans," Kerry said.

He also reminded Georgia voters that he was decorated for heroism in combat in Vietnam as a Naval officer before coming back to the United States and opposing the war.

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Edwards spent much of his Georgia campaign seeking a debate with Kerry in the state, but he had to settle for the debate Thursday in Los Angeles.

"We ought to debate wherever and whenever the state of Georgia and the people of Georgia want us to," Edwards said. "The election is too important. The people of Georgia deserve to hear what we have to say."

Edwards spoke at historically black Clark Atlanta University, a nod to the importance of the African-American vote in Georgia.

Kerry's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, campaigned at the Martin Luther King Center, accompanied by two members of Congress and several state legislators.

New York activist Al Sharpton is still on the ballot and registered 9 percent in the Zogby poll. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, had 1 percent despite his impressive showing in Hawaii. Both were also in single digits in the American Research Group poll.

The endorsement contest appears to be a tossup. Former Gov. Roy Barnes is leading the way for Edwards. Kerry supporters number former Sen. Max Cleland and three members of Congress including civil rights campaign veteran John Lewis.

Both Barnes and Cleland lost their re-election bids in 2002, blunting their influence.

The death of former Atlanta Mayor Maynard Jackson last year has an impact, albeit negative. He was considered the last Democrat with enough clout in Atlanta to have an impact on an election.

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