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France's top leaders vie for popularity

By ELIZABETH BRYANT, United Press International

PARIS, Jan. 20 (UPI) -- Most countries make do with just one head of government. But in France these days, there appear to be three.

The titular head, of course, is Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the country's rumpled and amiable prime minister, whose popularity ratings took a battering over the past year. Then there is President Jacques Chirac, the canny 71-year-old survivor of France's turbulent political currents, who is taking an increasing interest in the day-to-day running of the state.

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But prominently center stage stands presidential wannabe Nicolas Sarkozy, the country's cocky, popular interior minister, who has made no secret about his ambitions to take over Chirac's job in the 2007 elections.

Now, the long-simmering political rivalry and personal dislike between Chirac and his interior minister has erupted into all-out war, with each juicy detail -- fed by unnamed, close sources -- making almost-daily front page news. The speculation now is not how the two men will mend fences, but just how long their marriage of convenience will last.

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"Chirac doesn't hate me," Sarkozy was quoted by Le Monde telling a close political adviser. "It's worse: He fears me."

There are good reasons why Chirac doesn't just fire Sarkozy. Besides being France's most popular politician, the interior minister has delivered the goods of his difficult job.

Under Sarkozy's watch, rates of crime and insecurity -- top campaign issues in the 2002 elections -- dropped nearly 4 percent last year. He closed a controversial refugee camp in Sangatte, coaxed French Muslims to elect their first-ever representative council, and presided over the spectacular arrest of Corsican fugitive Ivan Colonna, the top suspect in the 1998 assassination of the island's French prefect.

By contrast, Chirac's own popularity took a nosedive last year, after a few giddy months reaping kudos for opposing the U.S.-led war on Iraq. More recently, his ratings surged again -- up six points to 56 percent, according to one January Ipsos poll. But Chirac's score is a marked 6 percent less than the 63 percent tallied by Sarkozy, who landed first place on a political popularity contest.

Success has clearly emboldened hyperactive, 48-year-old Sarkozy, dubbed the "Energizer bunny" of France's center-right. In a November television interview, he confessed he thought about capturing the presidency, "and not just when I'm shaving." For Chirac's close advisers, the piece of indiscretion was unpardonable, and it continues to reverberate in the French media.

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But it didn't stop just there. During a trip to China this month, Sarkozy reportedly asked President Hu Jintao what it felt to be No. 1, after years in second place. He delivered a further jab at his boss by allegedly dismissing sumo wrestling -- a sport greatly admired by Chirac -- as practiced by "these obese types with their hair slicked back in buns."

Never mind that Sarkozy denied saying those exact words, first reported in Paris Match, then gleefully carried by other French media. Never mind he has recently sought to downplay his presidential ambitions -- "nobody knows who will be a candidate, least of all me" he told reporters last week -- or that both men officially claim relations are just fine.

Close advisers from both camps continue to feed the political soap opera. So has Raffarin, whose two years in office have been peppered with a series of thankless jobs -- from pushing through unpopular retirement reforms, to being dispatched to Brussels this month to smooth frosty relations with the European Commission.

"Have you seen his popularity?" Raffarin recently asked a group of French reporters, referring to Sarkozy. "I'm not going to kick him out, when he can help us win" March regional elections.

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Nor is the first time Sarkozy has irked Chirac. Once a trusted member of Chirac's inner circle, Sarkozy betrayed his boss by supporting rival Eduard Balladur in the 1995 presidential elections. When Chirac won the vote, Sarkozy was cast into the political cold until he was tapped to head the Interior Ministry in 2002.

Differences between the two men are more than just personal. Sarkozy initially opposed Chirac's decision to introduce legislation banning the headscarf and other religious accessories in French public schools. He has urged Chirac's camp to mend fences with a fractious current of the umbrella Union for a Popular Movement party, and floated a French twist on affirmative action, a notion Chirac opposes.

Chirac is now reportedly playing a waiting game, hoping his nonstop minister will burn out. But analysts suggest Sarkozy, too, has no intention in staying too long in the job. Better to retire at the top and plot an electoral strategy for 2007.

Whether Sarkozy will still be the toast of French voters 3 years from now is anybody's guess. By then however, Chirac will be 74. Even with carefully dyed hair, contacts and a year-round tan -- not to mention allegations of a discreet hearing aid -- Chirac's age will be hard to forget.

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