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Analysis: No friendly get together

By ROLAND FLAMINI, UPI Chief International Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Jan. 12 (UPI) -- Three years ago, President George W. Bush came into office vowing to make Washington's relations with its neglected Latin American neighbors a top priority. To drive home the point, his first bilateral summit was with Mexico's President Vicente Fox. His first full-scale summit a few weeks later was with leaders of the 34-member Organization of American States in Quebec.

The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington and the realities of presidential politics changed all that. But with elections looming and a Hispanic vote to capture, Bush was in Monterrey, Mexico, Monday, for a Latin American regional summit that is expected to bring him face to face with a new South American wariness of U.S. intentions.

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As part of the Bush democratization doctrine Washington is pushing for the expulsion of corrupt governments from the Organization of American States. Several Latin American member governments oppose this, arguing it would be difficult to establish who will judge the specific cases, and what will be the established criteria.

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The Bush administration also wants a firm commitment from member states to complete talks on a Free Trade Area of the Americas by 2005. The move would extend the existing North American Free Trade Agreement to every country in Central and South America and the Caribbean. But Brazil and Venezuela have balked at putting trade talks on the agenda.

Brazil seems more interested in developing its new economic cooperation with South Africa and India in the recently formed Group of 20 bloc of developing countries, observers say. Venezuela's opposition reflects President Hugo Chavez's deep-seated suspicion of Washington's intentions.

A fusillade of sharp exchanges last week between senior U.S. administration officials and Chavez can hardly be said to have helped to establish a mood for friendly summitry. On Friday, Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, called on Chavez to show "that he believes in the democratic processes" by allowing a free recall referendum on his administration called for by the opposition.

Earlier, Roger Noriega, undersecretary of state for Latin American affairs, had accused Cuba and Venezuela of trying to destabilize the region.

On Sunday, Chavez retaliated by saying U.S. officials "should not stick their noses in Venezuela." In his regular weekly radio broadcast "Alo Presidente," he also said Washington was "preparing the ground" for his removal.

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Analysts believe that backing for Bush's anti-terrorism offensive will also be spotty, with key Latin American governments believing Washington's handling of the problem has been heavy handed. Brazil has been particularly critical of recent U.S. anti-terrorist measures, and the Brazilians initially responded to the U.S. decision to photograph and fingerprint foreign visitors by doing the same to American visitors entering their country. That decision was overruled Monday.

Latin American leaders, and Fox in particular, will want to learn more about Bush's new immigration proposal to allow illegal immigrants to work for at least 3 years in the United States. Fox sees the plan as a step toward a more liberal border policy, but the Bush administration has yet to make this link.

Still, the summit provides a chance for Fox and Bush to repair some of the damage done to neighborly relations by Mexico's opposition to the Iraq war as a member of the U.N. Security Council.

As usual, the most conspicuous absentee from the summit is Cuba's Fidel Castro who was not invited to Monterrey. Observers said he will be there in the mind of some of those present as they adjust to what an Argentine diplomat called "a new reality" in the hemisphere's relations with the United States.

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When Noriega rapped the Buenos Aires government on the knuckles for being too friendly with the Castro regime recently, the Argentines replied that the concept of "automatic alignment" with Washington was a thing of the past.

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