LOS ANGELES, Nov. 16 (UPI) -- Arnold Schwarzenegger opens Monday in the role of a lifetime as one of the Republican Party's hottest new stars when he takes the oath of office and launches his career as governor of California.
The red-carpet premier will include more than 7,000 invited guests -- relatively small for a California inauguration -- and scores of journalists from across the United States who will be straining for some clue as to how the action hero will fight his way through a menacing army of natural disasters, rising deficits, partisan legislators and determined lobbyists.
"The governor-elect has an appreciation for the difficulties with which he will have to contend," observed Assemblyman Mark Ridley-Thomas, a Democrat who represents central Los Angeles. "There is a quantitative difference between being on the campaign trail and sitting in the governor's chair making decisions on what is actually going to happen."
Ridley-Thomas, a former Los Angeles City Council member, spoke in his usual thoughtful, measured tones this week as he and a cadre of academics and political consultants dissected the Oct. 7 recall vote that sent Gov. Gray Davis packing less than a year into his second term, launching Schwarzenegger on a political career that will either immortalize him as the next Ronald Reagan or relegate him to the same political obscurity as George Deukmejian.
"Once he begins digging into the law-making process, he'll find that much of what he wants to do to be rather daunting," Ridley-Thomas cautioned during the seminar sponsored by the University of Southern California Friday.
Schwarzenegger's election has posed a dilemma for political observers in the Golden State. With no statehouse experience but a commanding -- if somewhat unique -- persona and seemingly solid public popularity, the No. 1 question has become whether he will be able to assert himself in Sacramento as he has done so effectively in the gym over the years, as well in Hollywood.
Schwarzenegger's campaign image was forged in the voters' seeming disgust with the way California state government has turned into a perceived smelly swamp of self-serving and free-spending partisanship and heavy-handed influence from a myriad of special interest groups. Electing Arnold, his campaign promised, would send a fresh wind through Sacramento that would oust the rascals with their hands out and return governing to that noble phrase "doing the people's business," which President Bush popularized.
"He rode into power on this wave of hope. ... He wasn't going to be 'Sacramento and usual,'" said Shaun Bowler, a Political Science professor at the University of California at Riverside.
Bowler was of the opinion that Schwarzenegger, despite his energy and his favorable public opinion, would soon become bogged down in the same legislative malaise and growing budget problems that made Deukmejian's two terms mostly forgettable.
"He's going to be like President (Vicente) Fox of Mexico," Bowler said as he reached one of the more unique comparisons made of Schwarzenegger and previous politicians. "He rode into power promising change but it turns out he's just another president of Mexico who is not able to do much, just like every other president of Mexico."
There are plenty of doubters who have concluded that even "The Terminator" won't be able to dislodge the lobbyists who write the campaign contribution checks and will find that the members of the Democrat-controlled Legislature are not nearly as obsequious to a big star as the studio executives and struggling screenwriters and toady agents in the movie business.
"We're now going to see what happens," said the bemused veteran Democratic consultant Joe Cerrell. "What is he going to do with the budget? How will he deal with the legislative leadership?"
Davis was rarely able to enlist the help of minority Republican lawmakers or rally the public, which is seen as Schwarzenegger's strongest point. Panelists at USC agreed that while Schwarzenegger has the ability to "go over the heads of the Legislature" and take his case to the people, he should be careful not to consider his election to be a sign that the state has jumped on the conservative Republican bandwagon or that the GOP will soon take control of the Legislature, or in the worst-case scenario, that Schwarzenegger himself is politically invincible.
"I don't think the Republican resurgence is really a resurgence," Cerrell said. "Have we heard of anyone running against (Sen.) Barbara Boxer who can be considered a formidable candidate?"
Joel Fox, former president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, said the Republicans would "have a better chance to state their case, but a lot of it will depend on how Arnold does."
Davis was also criticized during his first term for allowing -- or causing -- his relationship with the legislature to deteriorate to the point that it was largely unworkable even though the leadership is made up of his fellow Democrats. The starched, well-coiffed Davis insists his working relationships were just fine, but that is beside the point now. Even on his way out the door before Schwarzenegger could send in his own decorators, Davis was still appointing judges and other officials.
The point is that the state budget deficit, the very point from which funding flows for programs that are both necessary or merely desirable, is still in serious trouble and may not improve in the relatively short period of time Schwarzenegger's has before his term expires.
The Legislative Analyst Office, an independent agency that monitors the state budget for the Legislature, came out with a report Friday warning that the 2004-05 budget deficit could be as high as $14 billion if Schwarzenegger goes through with his vote-garnering promise to repeal a scheduled tripling of the state Vehicle Licensing Fee, which every motorist must pay annually to renew the registration on their vehicle.
While the idea was highly popular with the voters, it eliminates around $4 billion that would go directly to city and county governments for use in a wide range of services, including police and fire protection. The timing of the cuts comes after some of the worst wildfires in Southern California history, which illustrates just how difficult it is to carry out "the people's business" these days and give them a break on taxes at the same time.
"When you begin talking about paramedics not showing up ... people are going to think twice," Ridley-Thomas predicted.
Schwarzenegger has been conducting an in-depth audit of the state's books, which will presumably find some areas to cut, but that will again put the ball in the court of the State Assembly that may consider an area of "waste" to actually be a vital program for the populace.
Economist John Matsusaka of USC estimated that about 32 percent of the state budget is tied down by mandated spending, primarily for education, and while not terribly significant on the surface, nevertheless influences spending decisions in the budget.
"The budget will be the defining issue," Ridley-Thomas pointed out. "We will have to find a way to get around the wedge issues that are already starting to take off."
Schwarzenegger's camp has floated the idea of issuing as much as $20 billion in bonds to cover the deficit and future operating expenses. The idea is worrisome, however, to finance experts and to the political operatives who agree that it could lead to further troubles down the road even if Wall Street agrees to back the issuance.
Schwarzenegger's star power will enable him to capture the public's attention in ways Davis and many of his predecessors were unable to do. State government has rarely received the amount of media coverage it has since the recall campaign, and the arrival of Schwarzenegger might add some public-opinion pressure that will snap Sacramento out of the doldrums that caused California to go adrift in the first place.
