WASHINGTON, Dec. 4 (UPI) -- The Middle East is facing the unprecedented danger of three potential civil wars erupting -- Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories -- with each dragging some of its neighbors into a far larger conflict.
The U.S. invasion of Iraq has opened a Pandora's box resulting in the uncontrollable mess the country finds itself in today. In Iraq the danger of an all-out conflict between Sunnis and Shiites -- a conflict many observers say has already started, though the Bush administration refuses to see it that way -- is rapidly picking up steam. Nearly 100 people were killed Sunday in sectarian-related violence. And violence on that scale is no longer unusual.
Retired Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni, now a distinguished military fellow at the World Security Institute, pointed out in a policy brief released Sunday that, "It's not clear whether the United States is battling an insurgency, a war on terrorists, a civil war, or all of the above."
Meanwhile, the country's Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki, said to be "the right guy for the job" by President Bush despite the fact he snubbed the American president on what was supposed to be their first day of talks in the Jordanian capital, Amman, last week. It was Malaki's way to save face with his fellow Iraqis after the White House leaked a memo belittling the Iraqi prime minister, stating he might not be up to the job.
Despite his title of prime minister of Iraq, in reality, Malaki is prime minister of only the Green Zone -- that heavily fortified diplomatic compound in central Baghdad where the U.S. military command, the U.S. Embassy as well as a number of foreign legations are located and where the majority of diplomats work and live along with some high-ranking Iraqi leaders. The Green Zone is the part of Iraq over which the Iraqi government has total control. Well, almost. The American military are the ones who really control the Green Zone.
As the world awaits with anticipation to learn the result of the study conducted by former Secretary State James Baker III and his Iraq Study Group -- the contents of which should be released this week, many observers say that Iraq is already engulfed in a civil war which could last decades.
An Iraqi civil war runs the risk of spilling into neighboring countries, such as Saudi Arabia, where a large Shiite minority lives in the kingdom's eastern province. The division of Iraq into two or more states leaves many unanswered questions, for example what the Kurds in the north would do? And just as worrisome is what would be Turkey's reaction?
The second danger point is Lebanon. Here, pro- and anti-Syrian parties have been engaged in a live chess game with the pro-Syrian opposition calling for the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who enjoys the backing of the United States, the European Union and Saudi Arabia, to resign.
The pro-Syrian camp includes a bizarre alliance of the Shiite Hezbollah, Gen. Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, the Marada party made up of Christians from the northern part of Lebanon, and communists. One observer called it the "Fruitcake Revolution." Cautions the observer: "One wonders what the Islamist leadership plans to do with these and other supporters once they reach their goals. Can one find the answer in the study of recent Iranian history?"
Much like Malaki, Siniora is retrenched, along with a handful of government ministers, in the picturesque Grand Serail, Beirut's own "Green Zone." Protected by an imposing security detail, including tanks, armored personnel carriers and concertina wire, Lebanon's prime minister is holding fast in the former Ottoman edifice on the edge of downtown Beirut amid rumors that the opposition forces plan to storm the compound.
But fears of the so-far peaceful protest turning violent grew Sunday when a Shiite protester was shot and killed in a Sunni neighborhood in Beirut. Shiite demonstrators responded by rioting and smashing shops and tearing down posters of Saad Hariri. Police had to intervene using teargas.
With no sign of either side backing down from their respective positions, Lebanon may face a hot winter. A new civil war in Lebanon would drag Syria and Israel into the conflict, as it has in the past.
The third cog in the potentially devastating Middle East tragedy trilogy is the Palestinian Territories, where there does not seem to be any signs of a rapprochement between President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah Party, who favor peace talks with Israel, and the Islamic Resistance Movement, known as Hamas, who continues to confront Israel with homemade Qassam rockets. The result of Hamas' actions invites Israeli retaliatory raids and escalating tension between Fatah and Hamas.
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