WASHINGTON, March 14 (UPI) -- Pakistani president Gen. Pervez Musharraf signed 13 Chinese-Pakistani agreements and a memorandum of understanding, on energy, defense, trade, and communications during a visit to Beijing last month. These agreements have implications beyond their strictly economic aspects. They signify an upgrading of Beijing and Islamabad's long-standing strategic partnership and suggest that China's improved relations with India will not mean the end of Beijing's pro-Pakistan stance in South Asia.
Ever since Pakistan's 1998 test of nuclear weaponry the United States has been reluctant to lift its ban on sales of most defense technology items to Islamabad. Beijing has moved quickly to replace Washington as Pakistan's primary military and nuclear technology supplier, especially in the field of main battle tanks and missile technology.
Taking advantage of the recent increase in Pakistan's military spending, which will rise to US$3.74 billion in 2006, China is supplying Pakistan's Navy with four F-22P frigates, jointly producing the JF-17 fighter aircraft, and working together on the K-8 trainer. In the nuclear sector -- officially designated for civilian purposes only -- Beijing has already helped Islamabad to set up a nuclear power plant, and the two countries recently started work on a second in eastern Pakistan. When Pakistan attracted the wrath of many nations, including the United States, by testing its own nuclear weapon in 1998, China did not overtly condemn its neighbor.
As to trade and economic cooperation, a five-year joint program has been launched to boost economic ties and promote free trade. Chinese-Pakistani bilateral trade is flourishing, having risen from $3.06 billion in 2004 to $4.25 billion in 2005. There are plans to increase overall volume to $8 billion by 2008.
Beijing also agreed to provide Pakistan with $300 million in loans to buy Chinese goods, and has offered further assistance to help rebuild the important Karakoram Highway, which was severely damaged in the huge earthquake that struck Pakistan last year.
However the atmosphere between China and Pakistan has been sullied due to a string of recent deadly killings of Chinese technical and business personnel working in Pakistan. In May 2004, a car bomb killed three and injured nine of the 300 Chinese technicians working at the port of Gwadar near Karachi. Then in October 2004, two Chinese technicians working on the Gomal Zam Dam project were kidnapped. Most recently, on February 15 of this year, three Chinese engineers were killed in a tribal area south of Quetta. President Musharraf has said his government will do everything it can to bring the murderers of the three Chinese engineers to justice and beef up business security in Pakistan.
The cold blooded attacks on Chinese workers spring mainly from fears of tribal leaders, who view economic development per se as a threat their traditional way of life, rather than to any deep rooted anti-Chinese sentiment. However, some Balouchi nationalist militants interpret Sino-Pakistani cooperation as strengthening Islamabad's control over the region and therefore worthy to be opposed.
But it is Pakistan's ability to successfully protect China's workers and ensure Beijing's involvement at the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar that is crucial. Located in the Pakistani province of Balouchistan, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran to the west, Gwadar is just 72 kilometers from the Iranian border and about 400km from the Strait of Hormuz which is a major conduit for global oil supplies.
A recent report titled "Energy Futures in Asia," produced by defense contractor Booz Allen Hamilton for the Pentagon, notes that China has already set up electronic eavesdropping posts at Gwadar, which are monitoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea. The report sees China's efforts to defend its interests along oil shipping sea lanes as "creating a climate of uncertainty" and threatening "the safety of all ships on the high seas". Analysts say the overwhelming U.S. presence in the Gulf and the control of its exercises over the Malacca Strait, through which 80 percent of China's oil imports pass, has contributed enormously to Beijing's fears that Washington could choke off its oil supply, in the event of hostilities over Taiwan.
Ultimately it is not the number of agreements or accords Pakistan and China sign but using the wealth that results from economic activity to bolster political support that will keep the two governments working together. Islamabad's must see to it that the people of Balouchistan share in the prosperity that is expected to come from Gwadar port, while Beijing ensures that the Uighurs gain from the trade with Central Asia. China and Pakistan need one another to achieve their mutual objectives of enhanced strategic security and stronger economic interests in South Asia. So long as this is true the alliance is likely to endure.
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(Muazzam Gill is a news analyst and vice-president of the American Leadership Institute.)
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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
