JERUSALEM, Nov. 11 (UPI) -- President George W. Bush's re-election signals a strong continuity in U.S. policy. A half dozen major issues in the Middle East require tough decisions, and the Arab-Israeli one, even with the acknowledged death of Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, is the easiest.
On each of these six challenges -- Iraq, weapons of mass destruction (which means Iran), the Arab-Israeli conflict, democratization, war on terrorism, and Europe -- the Bush administration has to set and implement a complex policy. But Bush has a clear, consistent idea of what he wants to do.
Bush's team is guided by a clear philosophy to which it is strongly committed, has withstood great pressure to sustain it, and can now argue that he has a mandate to continue. Experience has reinforced this thinking. For example, "everyone" tells it that the Israel-Palestinian issue must be settled right away. But even with Arafat going out the door, the White House knows well that the basis for diplomatic progress is not in place.
The same point applies to Europe, which has been hostile toward Bush and unhelpful generally on Iraq. While Bush wants to improve relations with Europe, his guaranteed four years in office frees him from having to take any major steps against U.S., or Israeli interests for that matter, to appease his European critics. Knowing that they must deal with him for the next years in fact puts more pressure on them to try to get along with America.
Finally, the most likely personnel changes that will take place are more likely to strengthen Bush's commitment to current policies and ability to do what he wants to do.
So U.S. Middle East policy is going to be governed by a strong, coherent government that knows what it wants to do. It may not understand the region so well or implement his strategies so effectively but that factor is hardly unusual for American administrations.
The re-elected president faces six major issues on which difficult choices and urgent responses must be made. These include:
Iraq: This is going to preoccupy U.S. global policy for the next year. It must somehow find a way out of the deadlock allowing it to show that an Iraqi government is taking hold, violence is declining and American troops can be withdrawn. A failure here will doom the administration's overall image, power and support domestically. The turning point here is going to be in the second half of 2005 when it will probably be clear that the government does not control the country, the war is continuing, and there is no easy way out.
War on Terror: The Bush administration will continue its measures to block terrorist attacks and root out the enemy wherever possible. But being so over-extended in Iraq would probably prohibit any new commitments or escalations elsewhere -- the idea of U.S. military action against Syria or Iran is extremely unlikely. Catching Osama bin Laden must be high on the agenda and succeeding or failing will be a major issue. If the U.S. effort can prevent any serious attack on its soil or major terrorist strike against U.S. interests elsewhere it will be judged a success.
Iran's Nuclear Weapons: It seems likely that Tehran will get the bomb during Bush's term. U.S. policy takes a tough stand against this proliferation but exactly what can Bush do about it? He isn't going to attack Iran and the Europeans are not going to go along with any meaningful sanctions.
Democratization: The administration will continue to support the idea of promoting political change within Arab countries but this is going to be a lower priority as it is clear the United States can do little on this front.
Relations with Europe over the Middle East: Bush will try to improve these by showing how much effort he is putting into Arab-Israeli peace diplomacy. But little or none of this will come at Israel's expense because the Palestinians will be disorganized, Arab states uninterested in helping, and Europeans, at least those who complain the most, unwilling to assist the United States on other issues like the Iraq war and Iranian nuclear weapons.
Arab-Israeli conflict: The administration has no illusion of any breakthrough happening soon. Envoys will be sent to run around, meetings held, plans announced, yet this is also done with a profound doubt that anything is going to change. There will be much talk about helping Palestinian moderates win the leadership battle but the United States is going to have little influence and any hint that someone is an American candidate for Palestinian leadership will only hurt his chances.
U.S. policy will still back the "road map" plan but emphasizing that the Palestinians must act fully to stop terrorism before they receive any political rewards. American commitments to Israel will stay in place to support the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and building the security fence. U.S.-Israel relations will remain quite good.
Overall, given a combination of what is possible and what is needed, this is going to be a sensible policy. The exception -- and the big challenge -- is going to be on Iraq, where events are unlikely to show the Bush administration any mercy.
(Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center and co-author of Yasir Arafat: A Political Biography and Hating America: A History.)
(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
