PARIS, Sept. 12 (UPI) -- As the dust settles on the conflict in South Ossetia -- and as it vanishes progressively from the headlines in the Western press -- one thing has become overwhelmingly clear: The former Soviet republic of Georgia will never join the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the balance of power in the world therefore has shifted radically as a result of this little six-day war from Aug. 7-12. During the conflict, many people in the Russian media -- and in the country at large -- seemed obsessed with the negative coverage of Russia's position in the Western media.
It is certainly true that the media all over Western Europe and North America gave heavy prominence to the Georgian position and was very anti-Russian in tone. It is also true that this negative coverage comes after a long period of deterioration in relations between Russia and the West, which seemed to reach a new low just after the South Ossetian conflict when U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Warsaw to sign the agreement to station the new anti-missile shield in Poland.
On the other hand, while much political reality can be created -- or at least influenced -- by the virtual reality of TV, it is an inescapable truth of human history that the key questions of politics -- especially the one about who has the right to rule -- are usually decided by force. In the case of South Ossetia, the West's blandishments against Moscow -- whose hypocrisy must be very irritating for Russia's leaders -- are in fact nothing but psychological compensation for the fact that Western leaders know, in their heart of hearts, that they cannot and will not fight Russia over Georgia.
Russia is the second most heavily armed country in the world and a serious nuclear power. The West, meanwhile, is fighting protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which means that its hands are tied behind its back. If the NATO states are not prepared to go to war with the Russian army over that small parcel of territory around the South Ossetian secessionist regional capital of Tskhinvali, of which few people in the West had even heard before the violence erupted, then Georgia can never join the U.S.-led Atlantic alliance because NATO membership means precisely that members must fight for each others' territorial integrity.
More than 10 years of promises that Georgia would be invited to join NATO have just been quietly shelved, even if the West does not admit this openly. Moreover, not only Georgia's accession but the whole process of further NATO expansion is now on hold.
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(Part 2: The impact of the Georgian conflict on Ukraine's politics and grand strategy)
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(John Laughland is a British historian and political analyst, and director of studies at the Institute of Democracy and Cooperation in Paris. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)
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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
