MELBOURNE, April 2 (UPI) -- Nuclear power plants are vulnerable to many events that could lead to meltdowns, including human and mechanical errors; impacts from climate change, global warming, and earthquakes; and, we now know, terrorist attacks.
Statistically speaking, an accidental meltdown is almost a certainty sooner or later in one of the 438 nuclear power plants located in 33 countries around the world. Human error, compromise, laziness, and greed are implicit in the affairs of men; when these attributes are applied to the generation of atomic energy, the results can be catastrophic.
David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer from the Union of Concerned Scientists, points out, nuclear power plants are like people: they have numerous problems in their infancy and youth, they operate relatively smoothly in early-to middle life, and they start to show signs of stress and manifest pathology as they age. Every U.S. nuclear power plant is moving into the old-age cycle, and the number of near-misses is increasing. In a 13-month period from March 7, 2000, to April 2, 2001, eight nuclear power plants were forced to shut down because of potentially serious equipment failures associated with aging of their mechanical parts--one shut down on average every 60 days.
According to John Large, a British consulting engineer, "Nuclear power plants are almost totally ill-prepared for a terrorist attack from the air" because nuclear reactors were designed and constructed more than 50 years ago, well before the large airplanes in common use today were ever conceived. Large points out that designs of relevant nuclear power plants are easy to obtain in the open literature. Although security at civilian airports has been enormously improved, security at nuclear power plants is virtually unchanged.
What would a catastrophe at a nuclear power plant in the United States look like?
Let's consider the two large Indian Point reactors located in the town of Buchanan in Westchester County, 35 miles from midtown Manhattan. Both reactors are aging and adjacent to a very large population base: More than 305,000 people live within a 10-mile radius of the plants, and 17 million live within 50 miles.
An Indian Point meltdown caused by a small group of people intent on wreaking disaster could readily be achieved. Terrorists could easily disrupt the external electricity supply of the reactors, or obtain one small speed boat, pack it with explosives, and drive it full tilt into the two adjacent intake pipes that suck almost two million gallons of Hudson River cooling water per minute into the reactors.
Within several hours the meltdowns would be in full swing. Alternatively, a terrorist could drive a truck packed with explosives into a strategic area of the plant, or, after a few basic flying lessons, a novice pilot could commandeer a large passenger plane loaded with fuel and fly it into the reactor itself, destroying strategic safety systems and/or emptying the reactor of its cooling water.
The calculations are truly frightening, because people in the evacuation zone will receive enormously high doses of radiation. The symptoms that will be experienced by people in Westchester County and Manhattan include: acute loss of hair, severe nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, bleeding from every orifice, and massive, overwhelming infection. This collection of symptoms was first experienced by Hiroshima victims and is called acute radiation sickness.
Now imagine this scene. Over 300,000 people are running and driving away from the stricken reactor along winding Westchester roads, stuck in traffic jams; all are in a state of panic, anxiety, and acute disarray. Then they begin to taste a strange, metallic flavor in their mouths. They infer that each breath exposes them to deadly radioactive gases, the radio blasts out dire warnings, yet nobody knows what they are doing and nobody is in control. And what about Manhattan? Millions of people trapped as the bridges and tunnels are totally blocked, hiding in their apartments, hardly daring to breathe.
The economic consequences of a meltdown at Indian Point would be stupendous. The financial capital of the world could be rendered virtually uninhabitable, with a possible $1.17 trillion to $2.12 trillion dollars in damages.
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission does not make public its risk assessment studies on nuclear power plants, even though by law it is obliged to do so. David Lochbaum says this "agency continues to make regulatory decisions affecting the lives of millions of Americans in a vacuum."
While the Indian Point nuclear power plants I and II operate at full tilt -- in a country that insists on car seats and safety belts, no smoking, no swimming without a lifeguard, fire extinguishers and oxygen masks, life vests and air bags -- citizens lack the most basic information about how best to protect themselves and their children in the event of a nuclear meltdown. Nor is there any official requirement to supply this information to the general population.
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(This piece originally appeared in Dr. Helen Caldicott's "Nuclear Power Is Not the Answer," The New Press, 2006. Ths piece is published here with the permission of The New Press. Helen Caldicott is president of the Washington-based Nuclear Policy Research Institute. She was a founder of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the organization that won the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize.)
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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
