WASHINGTON, March 21 (UPI) -- US. House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton said Tuesday U.S. forces can do nothing to avert sectarian violence in Iraq.
A bloody, all-out clash is inevitable no matter when the United States pulls out, he said.
It is that belief that underpins the Democratic "redeployment" plan included in the 2007 war supplemental bill now under consideration by the House of Representatives.
"I'm convinced that should there be a redeployment now, six months from now, two years from now, the sectarian violence will increase ... It's inevitable," Skelton said.
"At what point if ever do the Sunnis and Shiites get tired of fighting each other? Obviously we're not close to it now and I think it will be years and years before it reaches (that point). I don't think any of these groups ... who are killing each other every day are even close to being tired."
The Democratic redeployment plan calls for the withdrawal of many U.S. troops from Iraq - either to perches nearby or back to their home bases, by March 2008 regardless of conditions on the ground in Iraq. The plan calls for leaving behind counter-terrorism forces to take on al-Qaida in Iraq and other terrorist groups, and advisers for the Iraqi military and police.
Skelton acknowledged that all-out sectarian violence would destabilize Iraq's government and said the answer is not more U.S. troops or a continued large presence but mobilizing regional powers to prevent the spread of violence to the wider region.
"We do our very best to get other countries involved in stabilizing the region. That's been a major problem since day one, but they are gonna have to step up to it. Whether it be Saudi Arabia, or Syria or Iran, which is doing its best to have tentacles all over the place."
Skelton said serious mistakes were made in the beginning of the war that cannot be undone. He said the first was in failing to have hundreds of thousands of troops to maintain order after the invasion; allowing looting and lawlessness immediately after the fall of Baghdad; not securing weapons caches; shutting down government industries and putting those employees out of work; outlawing the Baath party and forbidding its members to work for the new Iraqi government and disbanding the military.
"All of this caused in some respects people to go over to the insurgency, or at least not to want to work with the Americans or coalition forces. I think it put us in such a bad shape that the best we can do is bring the violence down, get the baton handed fully to the Iraqi government and military and redeploy our troops," he said. "We have made irretrievable strategic mistakes made that can not be unrung."
"I don't see a solid hoped-for democracy as we would see it coming out of here with peace spreading all over Iraq because in the most part those (are) irretrievable strategic mistakes," he said.
Though he voted for the war, Skelton comes by his criticism of its prosecution honestly. In September 2002 and again in March 2003, just before the war began, Skelton sent letters cautioning President George W. Bush about planning for the post-war properly.
"I have no doubt that our military would decisively defeat Iraq's forces and remove Saddam. But like the proverbial dog chasing the car down the road we must consider what we would do after we caught it," he wrote.
He warned of the "extreme difficulty" of occupying Iraq, its ethnic and sectarian tensions, the question of what to do with Baath party members, and the possibility that the new Iraqi regime would be resisted by the population. He also warned of the possibility that an invasion of Iraq would undermine international support for the broader war on terrorism. He warned that the war might push away Iran, which had been cooperating with U.S. efforts in Afghanistan, and inflame Islamic terrorism. All of those problems have been manifested in Iraq.
"Can you unring those bells? I don't think you can unring those bells short of starting all over again and putting hundreds of thousands of troops (into Iraq that) we don't have. It's far too late for it," Skelton said. "If we had not made those mistakes -- they are not small mistakes. Mistakes are always made in war but these were biggies. If they had not been made there may be some light at end of tunnel."
