WASHINGTON, March 14 (UPI) -- Strong Shiite resistance could destroy the U.S. surge strategy to secure Baghdad. a leading U.S. military analyst warned Wednesday.
"If the fighting in Baghdad should trigger a major Shiite resistance, even by one major faction like Moqtada al-Sadr's, the United States will probably see the Iraqi government fatally weakened if not collapse," Anthony H. Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic Studies wrote in his study, "New Strategy in Iraq: Uncertain Progress towards an Unknown Goal" released Wednesday.
"If the Shiite militias in Baghdad continue to stand down, and U.S.-led operations continue to focus on local security and defeating the Sunnis, the end result of creating "white spots" in Baghdad will be to solidify Shiite control over most of the city and province, segregate Sunnis, and push Sunnis into divided areas outside the city," Cordesman wrote.
"The Iraqi government is dominated by a fractured Shiite coalition with strong religious motivation, a long history of distrust of the United States, and whose main parties (SCIRI and Al Dawa) see their Shiite militias and efforts to dominate the country as legitimate," he wrote.
"If the Shiites in the government can spin the new Bush strategy to take control of Baghdad by having Shiite militias stand down, by having the central government take control of all of the city's districts, and by having U.S. and ISF troops defeat the Sunni forces in the city, this gives them a major victory," Cordesman wrote.
"The end result will still be Shiite dominance, and the United States will eventually leave -- probably sooner than later even if the U.S. appears to win, he wrote
