WASHINGTON, March 12 (UPI) -- A recent study indicated that the U.S. military can predict dust storms that blow through Iraq in the winter and spring.
The American Meteorological Society issued a report that concluded the United States was able to predict dust events with an accuracy rate of 85 percent and between one and three days in advance during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
It was also noted that the military's three-day forecasts were about as accurate as the 12-hour predictions.
There were five major dust storms during the 2003 invasion that reduced visibility to less than 100 meters, or just over 100 yards. The report, which was originally published in the journal Weather and Forecasting, also noted that blowing dust was a major factor in the doomed 1980 attempt to rescue U.S. embassy personnel held prisoner in Iran.
The Navy's COAMPS system is the primary forecasting tool for dust storms and produced daily forecasts of dust concentrations, visibility and optical depth, which is basically the thickness of the dust cloud. The system is based on new computer models that can estimate the "life cycle" of dust particles from the time they are picked up by the wind until they are deposited back on the ground.
The report said the major weakness in the system during Operation Iraqi Freedom were errors in predicting precise wind direction and speed, which lowers the accuracy of exactly when and where dust will blow in.
