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BMD Watch: BMD base talks could take years

By MARTIN SIEFF, UPI Senior News Analyst

WASHINGTON, Feb. 27 (UPI) -- The Bush administration is getting what appear to be mixed signals from Poland about its plans to deploy anti-ballistic missile interceptor defenses on Polish soil.

On the one hand, Polish Foreign Minister Anna Fotyga cautioned Monday during a visit to the Armenian capital Yerevan that negotiations about putting a U.S. BMD base on Polish soil could take years.

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"The United States has proposed building a missile defense base on our territory, but the negotiating process could last several years, because various technical, legislative and other issues are involved," Fotyga said according to a report from the RIA Novosti news agency.

"All I can say with certainty is that during the discussions, we will prioritize Poland's security, and then the security of Europe and the world," she said.

But other reports coming out of Warsaw have been much more positive from the U.S. point of view.

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RIA Novosti also reported that Elzbieta Jakubiak, chief of the Polish presidential administration, said Saturday that Polish President Lech Kaczynski planned to study the BMD base plan with the nation's Security Council before March 5.

"Poland formally agreed last Friday to start detailed negotiations with the U.S. on the deployment of parts of the missile shield on its territory," RIA Novosti said.

Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski has also maintained a strongly supportive approach to the idea of deploying U.S. BMD assets on Polish territory. In remarkably outspoken comments on Feb. 20, he welcomed the prospect of playing host to a U.S. ballistic missile defense interceptor base and said that the deployment of U.S.-built interceptors in Poland would guarantee that Warsaw would no longer be under Russia's sphere of influence.

"We are talking about the status of Poland and about Russia's hopes that Poland will once again come under its (Moscow's) sphere of influence," Kaczynski said.

Although Poland is now an enthusiastic member of both the U.S.-led NATO alliance and the European Union, Kaczynski said his country could still hypothetically face the possibility of Russia exerting direct pressure on it, or creating conditions under which Poland was forced to respond to Russia's wishes, RIA Novosti reported.

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"But following the deployment of a missile defense base here, the chances of such undue influence arising will be greatly reduced for at least several decades," Kaczynski said, according to the report.

The pattern of statements from the senior Polish officials and politicians suggests that the government in Warsaw is still strongly supportive of the idea of seeing the U.S. BMD base built on its territory, but that it anticipates having to weather a lot of delays, pressure from Russia and internal debate before that can happen.


Russia may set up new aerospace command

Even if there is no new superpower arms race the United States and Russia are increasingly acting as if there was.

Russia must develop powerful new aerospace forces, its top air force general said Monday.

Four-star Army General Vladimir Mikhailov made the call the day before Russia's Military-Industrial Commission, which reports directly to President Vladimir Putin, was scheduled to meet discuss the development of Russia's ambitious "fifth-generation" S-400 air-defense system, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

"The meeting, hosted by First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, will be held at the Almaz Science and Production Association, and the participants will discuss the prospects of developing weapons systems that would become part of the future aerospace defense forces," Gen. Mikhailov said.

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RIA Novosti also reported that former defense minister Sergei Ivanov, who presided over plans to ambitiously modernize and re-equip Russia's air defense and strategic missile systems, announced Monday that some of the new S-400 Triumf ground-to-air missile systems were already being prepared last year for operational and were expected to be put on alert duty later this year.

"It is a unique system that has no parallels (in the world)," Ivanov said.

RIA Novosti said Ivanov had also said that Russia should focus on pushing ahead with plans for its development of fifth-generation air-defense systems and that it should integrate aspects of its air, missile and space defenses into them.

Last month, Russia announced it had completed deliveries of its not quite as advanced, but still world class, Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile defense system to Iran.

Russia's leaders have reacted with alarm and anger to the Bush administration's success in persuading Poland and the Czech Republic to allow ballistic missile defense interceptors and radars to be deployed on their territories over the next few years. Some Russian military analysts also expressed concern at the success of China's anti-satellite, or ASAT, weapons test last month.

Gen. Mikhailov's announcement was therefore a signal that Russia appears prepared to make large investments to upgrade its space-based and space-capable military assets and to take major steps to further integrate them.

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Northrop Grumman wins space tracking study contract

Northrop-Grumman Space Technology has won a $17.5 million contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency to carry out a new study for the Space Tracking and Surveillance System, the Pentagon announced Monday.

NGST of Redondo Beach, Calif., said it had been given a $17,499,776 cost-plus-fixed-fee contract modification to conduct a study for the STSS component of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System.

"Work will be performed at Redondo Beach, Calif., and is expected to be complete by September 2007. The contract funds will not expire at the end of the fiscal year," Northrop Grumman said. "The Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, Calif., is the contracting activity. (Fiscal Year 2007) research and development funds will be used."

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