WASHINGTON, Feb. 2 (UPI) -- A new U.S. intelligence estimate said Iraq's leaders would be "hard pressed" to achieve national reconciliation even with diminished violence in the country.
Iraqi society is growing in polarization, it said, security forces are weak and all groups are ready use of violence.
"...Even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this estimate."
The estimate, is based on information and analysis by 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. It's projections cover a forward timeframe of 12-18 months. A highly abbreviated and unclassified version of its conclusions were made public Friday by the Office of the Director of Intelligence.
The complete document, which has not been released, is over 90 pages in length.
It said that despite the negative factors in Iraq, there were a number of developments that could help reverse the bleak assessment, including greater Sunni Muslim acceptance of federalism and the current political structure, concessions by Shiites and Kurds to gain Sunni cooperation, and implementation of a bottom-up approach to local government.
The report also painted disasterous consequences if Iraq should collapse and said a withdrawal of U.S. troops could speed such a process.
A key factor in stabilizing Iraq, it said, would "be stronger Iraqi leadership."
"We agree that it is hard (to achieve those goals)," national security adviser Stephen Hadley told reporters Friday. "We think that's accurate. We think -- we would emphasize the 'hard pressed' because we will be pressing them hard, and the Iraqi people will be pressing the government hard, because ein the end of the day, we all understand that reconciliation is a key to long-term security and success."
Hadley said the full report influenced, and reflects, President Bush's new strategy for Iraq, which includes holding the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to benchmarks, including oil revenue sharing, constitutional reform and increased security capability and responsibility.
