WASHINGTON, April 21 (UPI) -- The United States needs to partner with the United Nations, the European Union, the Arab League and Iran to keep Iraq from spiraling into civil war, a prominent expert warns.
Larry Diamond, who served as senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad, said all stakeholders in Iraq need to help mediate an agreement between its political groups, which have not been able to agree on a prime minister or move the constitution review process forward.
The interim and permanent constitutions did not sufficiently involve the Iraqi public during the drafting processes, and now the United States needs to put pressure on Iraq to amend the constitution, Diamond said. But this will require more than just U.S. pressure.
"We need to find a way to talk to elements of the insurgency who have indicated an interest in talking," which the United Nations can help with, said Diamond, who spent the first three months of 2004 in Iraq advising on the initial drafting of the interim constitution.
"And we need to bring ... neighboring countries into the dialogue, including Iran," he said.
A February 2006 analysis paper for the Brookings Institution said, "The United States is increasingly wearing out its welcome in Iraq."
"Shifting to a more international approach would likely allow us to prolong the process of externally-assisted reconstruction longer than will a continuing U.S.-dominated approach," the paper said.
Diamond said the United States should ask the United Nations to name an international mediator to lead a commission, and it should ask the European Union to contribute an experienced team to the mediating effort.
The United States should also invite the Arab League to help in negotiations with Iraq because they are regional stakeholders and they can persuade Sunni Arabs to make concessions while guaranteeing them security, he said.
Last, the United States should bring Iran into the talks and put everything on the table, including democracy, human rights and nuclear concerns, he said.
"Everything's linked," Diamond said. "It's incredibly complicated."
This web of issues and agendas takes time to sort out. But Iraq doesn't have time, he said.
The situation there is much more serious than in January 2006 when he published a new afterword to his book "Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq."
"You can really see the slide toward civil war," he said.
Counter-insurgency efforts will have to address suspicions about American presence in Iraq, Diamond said. The United States needs to give a "clear and unequivocal" declaration that it will not seek permanent military bases in Iraq, he said.
"I am not so naive as to think that this is just going to end the insurgency. But I think it can help to create a climate for dialogue," he wrote in an e-mail.
Dialogue is what was missing in the creation of a constitution. The Iraqi people were resentful that drafts of the constitution were not submitted to the public, to organizations and to religious leaders for critique before they had to vote, Diamond said.
"The interim constitution required substantial popular involvement, deliberation, and input, but there really wasn't time for this to be absorbed by the drafting process," he said. "This adds to the legitimacy deficit of the new constitution."
Less than a year after the interim constitution went into effect, the drafting of the permanent constitution was to have begun and been given time to include the national debate the Iraqi people wanted. But the Constitutional Drafting Committee was not appointed until May, leaving little time to receive input the Iraqi public missed with the interim constitution, Diamond wrote in his afterword.
One of the most damaging mistakes the United States has made in the last year is insisting that Iraq complete a permanent constitution by the Aug. 15, 2005 deadline, Diamond said in an interview.
"As a result, we got this deeply flawed constitution," he said.
The permanent constitution needs to be revised to establish unambiguous central control over oil and gas resources, he said. Parts of the Shiite coalition see the constitution as a victory because it allows for a large Shiite region in the southern provinces that hold much of the oil wealth.
Les Roberts, who led a 2004 study of civilian deaths in Iraq, said many Iraqis thought the United States was in Iraq for its oil.
The most useful thing the United States can do to help it leave Iraq is to undermine the perception it is there for oil, he said at a lecture at American University in Washington.
Iraq's parliament was to appoint a constitutional review commission that would have four months to propose and consider amendments to the constitution, but now there is skepticism about when or whether this will happen, Diamond said. This is partly because of deadlock in creating a new government.
Iraq will have to agree on key issues, especially concerning power sharing, to move past the deadlock, Diamond said. Until Iraq agrees on a prime minister, nothing else can happen, he said.
"It's the key that unlocks everything else."
(Editor's note: Iraq's Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jafari, who first refused to step aside, has reportedly now said he will resign his leadership of the Shiite party coalition. opening the way for a possible end to the deadlock.)
