PROVIDENCE, R.I., Nov. 10 (UPI) -- A mathematical model that predicted 2005 Cy Young award winners was accurate -- the Rhode Island College mathematicians who designed it were in error.
Rebecca Sparks and her husband, David Abrahamson, created the formula to predict voting results for starting pitchers, who almost always win the award.
Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals was the National League winner, while Bartolo Colon of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim was the American League winner.
However, Sparks and Abrahamson didn't even believe their own math formula. Prior to the awards, they overrode the model's American League prediction by saying New York Yankees reliever Mariano Rivera would win the title, rather than Colon.
The math model weights different pitching statistics to predict the winners in each league. But the formula is designed to analyze starting pitchers only, and is currently not equipped to evaluate relief pitchers, who occasionally win the award. That's why the researchers overrode their model's AL results and incorrectly predicted Rivera would win.
They say they are angry with themselves for not totally trusting their own formula.
A description of the math formula has been posted on the Mathematical Association of America's Web site.
