View: Will Arafat win the tug-o-war?

DOHA, Qatar, March 25 (UPI) -- Will he go, or won't he go?

Will Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat be allowed to attend the Beirut summit this Wednesday, or not? Will Israel's Prime Minister Arial Sharon allow his long-time nemesis to enjoy a triumphant return to the Lebanese capital, from where he forced his expulsion almost 20 years ago?

Will Arafat win this tug-o-war that has turned into a tug-o-wits and matured into a personal issue between him and the Israeli prime minister?

This very much remains the burning question of the week across the Middle East. From Cairo to the oil-rich Persian Gulf emirates, Arab leaders preparing for a summit meeting in Beirut later in the week are asking the question. Will he go?

With the summit a little more than 24 hours away, the Israeli government remains divided over the issue. As a prerequisite to his travel out of the country -- and just as importantly, to be allowed back in -- Israel is insisting that Arafat enforces a cease-fire, putting an end to the spiraling cycle of violence that has gripped the Holy Land.

Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, who shunned Arafat during an earlier 11-nation tour of the region, said he would not return to meet with the Palestinian leader as initially announced, placing the onus on Arafat to put a halt to the daily killings and suicide bombings.

One of the issues that will possibly be discussed in Beirut is a Saudi peace plan, where in exchange for Israel's full withdrawal to the pre-June 1967 borders, the Arabs would offer Israel full recognition. Saudi Arabian crown prince Abdullah, the de-facto ruler of the desert kingdom, has not confirmed if the plan, which will certainly meet opposition from hardliners such as Syria and Iraq, will be placed on the agenda in Beirut.

The U.S. pressured Sharon Monday to let Arafat travel to the summit.

Bahrain's rulers said Monday that without Arafat there should be no summit, which in principle makes sense, seeing that the burning issue of Middle East peace and the violence that has been gripping Israel and Palestine will be the central topic of the summit.

But this is the Middle East after all, where tradition dictates little sense. Otherwise, peace might have broken out long ago.

In many ways, the issue of whether to allow Arafat to attend the summit, or not, has become a matter of principle, or maybe a question of personal honor for Sharon, who defeated Arafat in Beirut two decades ago. Sharon is certainly unwilling to see him now return to Beirut as a conquering hero.

Should Arafat be allowed to leave the West Bank town of Ramallah, where the Israelis have kept him sequestered since November 2001, and attend the Beirut summit, he would undoubtedly receive a champion's welcome from his fellow Arab leaders. It would be, for Arafat at least, akin to Ceasar's victorious return to Rome.

For Arafat, this would represent a double victory: First, it would prove to Israel, and particularly to Sharon, that he remains very much relevant, despite efforts by the Israeli prime minister to sideline him, as he has tried hard to do.

Second, Arafat's triumphant return to Beirut would atone for his disgraceful departure in 1982, when he was forced out by Israel and left under the protection of American Marines and French troops. A return to Beirut under those conditions would finally address Arafat's ghosts, which he has undoubtedly been fighting with for nearly 20 years.

For the two protagonists -- Sharon and Arafat -- this tug of wits is only a continuation of a personal war between the two men that has become an attached to the larger Middle East conflict.