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Analysis: Iraq and Japan's back-scratching

By SHIHOKO GOTO, Senior Business Correspondent

WASHINGTON, April 10 (UPI) -- Japan remains the second-largest economy in the world, even as it remains poor in natural resources and effectively importing all of its petroleum needs. Indeed, more than 90 percent of its oil comes from the Middle East. Meanwhile, Iraq continues to be on the verge of outright civil war despite its abundance in natural resources, sitting on the world's third-largest crude-oil reserves. So perhaps it comes as no surprise that the two countries have decided to formalize their relationship to help each other out, as they did this week.

By the end of the first day of his four-day visit to Tokyo, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had secured a loan worth $862 million from the Japanese government for four projects to rebuild oil pipelines and construct oil-processing and export infrastructure. On Day 2, an additional $485 million was offered to help build up water and electricity facilities. Those loans alone have made Maliki's visit to East Asia worth the effort, but there is no doubt that Japan too hopes to gain as much, if not more, from providing the financial aid.

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"Iraq's stability is critical to the stability of the Middle East region, and it is directly related to Japan's national interest," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly told Maliki Monday following his visit with Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko.

Certainly, there has effectively been no public outrage to support the Maliki government, even though the low-interest, yen-denominated loan comes at a time when Japanese voters' support for the U.S. presence in Iraq continues to dwindle. Last July Japan pulled out its 600 troops from the country, and there has been more concern about Abe agreeing to extend the Japanese air self-defense force's support to Iraq for another two years. The Japanese air force currently has a unit based in Kuwait that provides supplies to Iraq.

By and large, Japanese public opinion has soured against U.S. efforts in Iraq, and as the situation in the country continues to deteriorate, voices questioning why Japan should help the United States in Iraq are only growing stronger, especially if it means Japanese lives are put at risk, even if they are military personnel. Indeed, Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma stated in January that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was outright "wrong," thereby stirring controversy not only within Japan, but also Japan's relations with the United States. So far, Japan has had no casualties in Iraq, and the government has insisted its troops be deployed for humanitarian purposes on the ground, rather than being on the frontline of a combat zone.

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Granted, that has not stopped some Japanese dailies from lauding Abe's decision to continue supporting Iraq militarily as well as financially. As the situation in Iraq worsens, "what Japan can do is limited," daily Yomiuri Shimbun stated in its op-ed column Tuesday, adding that the air force's work is a "symbol of how Japan can help Iraq as a member of the international community."

At the same time, it has become increasingly clear to both Japanese policymakers and business executives alike that getting Iraq back on its feet and ensuring that it becomes a steady supplier of petroleum on the global market is of particular interest for most countries.

"Japan needs to make sure that it does not fall behind" the United States and Europe as Iraq recovers and becomes a major oil exporter once again, the slightly right-of-center Yomiuri argued.

There has already been much speculation among business analysts in Japan on which energy companies will likely benefit the most from the latest loans to Iraq that will build up pipelines in the southern province of Basra in addition to constructing fertilizer and oil refinery plants.

Abe himself will be touring Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar later this month, and there is no doubt that he will continue trying to strike deals in the Middle East to secure his country's vulnerable oil supply.

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