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Analysis: U.N. council ponders Kosovo

By WILLIAM M. REILLY, UPI U.N. Correspondent

UNITED NATIONS, April 4 (UPI) -- Kosovo's future has finally been taken up by the U.N. Security Council as the international body debates whether the province should resume autonomy as part of Serbia or accept a U.N. recommendation it gain limited independence with a view to gaining total sovereignty.

U.N. Special Envoy Marti Ahtisaari, a former president of Finland and frequent U.N. troubleshooter, formally presented Tuesday his blueprint for the Serbian province's future with a call for supervised independence.

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The reception was predictably mixed, with Russia -- one of five veto-wielding permanent members of the 15-member panel -- supporting fellow Slavic state Serbia's bid to hold onto one of its provinces. Kosovo is a province Serbs regard as their spiritual and cultural heartland.

The other P5 members of the council are Britain, China, France, and the United States.

A reason supporting the province's independence is the fact that 90 percent of the Kosovo population is ethnic Albanian and mostly Muslim, as opposed to the orthodox Christian Serbs.

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"There was considerable support among member states for President Ahtisaari's proposals,'' Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry of Britain, this month's council president, told reporters after the proposal was presented.

However, he indicated there may not be a draft resolution ready before next month.

"I will expect further discussions this month. I don't think it's likely there will be an early presentation of a Security Council resolution though,'' London's envoy said.

Jones Parry told reporters the Ahtisaari recommendations would first be sent to the Kosovo contact group, composed of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the United States, for consideration.

Parry expects the contact group would draft the resolution.

In the interim, in addition to handling regular business, the council would decide in the next few days whether it will follow the suggestion of Russia's Ambassador Vitaly Churkin and visit Kosovo's capital of Pristina and Serbia's capital of Belgrade.

It is likely council members will go, but when has not been decided.

Churkin hopes the trip will sway council members to Serbia's side, allowing Belgrade to retain Kosovo.

Granting independence to the province is not as easy as it sounds, especially since Kosovo historically means so much to Serbs.

Russia, which has not rejected the Ahtisaari plan, wants to see negotiations continue, even though the former Finnish president has already said talks had been exhausted. Moscow wants to make the plan sweeter to Belgrade.

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The first argument heard against independence in any form is that it would set a bad precedent. It would mean the U.N. Security Council takes a province from a sovereign state, a member of the world organization, and that entity is set to be established as another sovereign state.

Russia thinks that would send the wrong message to separatists, particularly in Moscow's sphere of influence.

But that argument is countered by those who say it does not set precedent.

They say this is a unique situation, brought on by the breakup of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, which led to so much violence in the Balkans at that time and so many separate states.

Those same people say it was ethnic cleansing by the Serbs that drew in NATO bombers in 1990 that led to the United Nations running the province under a U.N. Security Council mandate since then.

Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sabliere of France said Ahtisaari "has done a very good job. He had a very difficult task. He tried his best to have the two parties agreeing on the statute of Kosovo but they couldn't agree. So he's making a proposal which really takes care of the question of minorities, also with the presence of an international force on the ground. ...

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"Ahtisaari's proposals are balanced and are the only ones possible. These are the best for the stability of the region: They protect minorities in Kosovo. So we have to take some time. But I am convinced that at the end of the day, everyone will be on board."

He acknowledges it will not be easy, with initial talks giving "some indication of the difficulty of the discussion we will have. This is normal, I would say. We expected it to be difficult. But in the council, there is a willingness to well understand the situation and I think there is a great willingness to work toward stability of Kosovo."

Referring to the situation's uniqueness, La Sabliere said, "This is a very specific situation that cannot be taken as a precedent. Again, Ahtisaari has done his best to find the best solution."

Said the Paris envoy, it would "be risky to keep the status quo. This is not an option. It's dangerous."

As for the Russian ambassador's suggestion of a visit to the region, he said such a trip for a few days would be worthwhile, but as for more talks, he said, "I have told the Ambassador, Churkin, that this idea will not add anything to the debate."

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Said La Sabliere, "In 2005, we decided to look forward to the next step, so what we need now is to discuss the (independence-enabling) statute and yes, it is an important decision. There is no need to rush, but we must not delay."

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