BERLIN, April 3 (UPI) -- Ukraine has been plunged into a political crisis that has its roots in a power struggle between the country's pro-European president and its pro-Russian prime minister.
Monday night, President Viktor Yushchenko, the man who in 2004 overcame a dioxin poisoning to turn into the hero of the peaceful democratic Orange Revolution, ordered the dissolution of his country's one-chamber parliament, the Rada, to pave the way for early elections on May 27. Lawmakers from the Rada, which is currently dominated by the party of pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, have since protested and even defied the president's decision.
The move comes after the president last week accused Yanukovych of illegally expanding his coalition majority by poaching Yushchenko's supporters. Ukrainian law is meant to prevent individuals elected under a one-party mandate from defecting to another group, yet Yanukovych in the past has courted lawmakers to try to secure a 300-vote majority in parliament, which would hand him a veto-proof majority in parliament and enable him to single-handedly change the country's constitution.
On Tuesday, the crisis looked to be deepening ahead of afternoon talks between the two leaders.
While Yushchenko, backed by the defense minister who said the army would only follow the president's orders, declared all of Yanukovych's moves invalid, the prime minister warned Yushchenko of a "grave mistake" and said early elections could be tied to his downfall as president. Yanukovych and his supporters are appealing to the country's constitutional court to overturn the dissolution of the parliament. Kiev in the past days has seen numerous protests reminiscent of those during the Orange Revolution; yet this time, the other side seems to be winning.
In 2004 it didn't look that way at all. At the time, Yushchenko beat Yanukovych for the office of the president, and a wave of democratic euphoria gripped the country, with the loser -- branded as a Putin puppet -- retreating to regional politics.
Yet the newly elected government under Yushchenko and his braided ally, Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister at the time, wasted much of the political capital that was handed to them after the Orange Revolution. Inner-party struggles for the best posts and mutual allegations of corruption slowed down politics and prevented smooth reforms; the bickering culminated in a fallout between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, who had to leave her prime minister post after she disagreed with the president on key economic policies.
Below the radar, Yanukovych was working at his comeback. Shot in the arm by the government's poor track record, he bounced back last year when his pro-Russian Party of Regions won the most votes in parliamentary elections. Yanukovych became prime minister and assembled a government coalition with Yushchenko, his former arch enemy, as president. That office has gradually lost power ever since Yanukovych's political comeback.
His Party of Regions has benefited from further corroding tendencies among the democratic forces. Last July Socialist Party member Oleksandr Moroz, seduced by the prospect of power, chose to become parliamentary president with the votes of the Party of Regions -- contrary to all previous agreements. The move put the final nail in the coffin of the democratic coalition, made up of the Socialists and Yushchenko's, as well as Tymoshenko's parties.
Yushchenko's decision to dissolve the parliament -- the eruption of a political crisis that has simmered in Ukraine for the past few months -- is seen by observers as Yushchenko's desperate and maybe final try to stop the parliament from turning into a pro-Russian stronghold.
Yushchenko has since 2004 embarked on an ambitious westward course to make the country fit for NATO and European Union membership. Yet roughly half of Ukraine's population, faced with constant propaganda from global energy player Russia, opposes NATO membership, and it is ironic that the democratic process that Yanukovych defied before 2004 now has handed him a majority in parliament.
Tymoshenko, in a move that shows how serious the situation is for the pro-Western forces, has since sided with her former revolutionary ally, calling Yushchenko's decision to dissolve the parliament a "courageous" step. However, her support may come too late. Eberhard Schneider, a senior German political expert and adviser to the EU-Russia Center in Brussels, told United Press International Tuesday Yushchenko's Party of Regions would gain even more votes than it owns now in case of early elections.
"And I fear that Yanukovych, like in 2004, will revert to election fraud methods," he said.
Naturally, the forces of the Orange Revolution want to prevent their dream of democracy from failing; both sides have reportedly assembled tens of thousands of supporters in Ukraine, and international observers fear the political conflict may turn violent on the streets of Kiev.
The EU presidency, currently held by Germany, Tuesday said it was "concerned" about the crisis in Ukraine, urging politicians there "to settle their current differences on domestic policy in a manner which complies with the constitution and democratic rules." The United States has also urged Kiev to solve the conflict peacefully, yet it is still unclear whom the West wants to support in this race.
"Politically, there is no reason to support Yanukovych," Schneider said. But not all experts in the United States agree.
"No matter who is in power in Kiev, Ukraine will continue to move closer to Europe," Nikolas Gvosdev, a senior U.S. foreign policy expert, wrote Tuesday in a commentary for The National Interest. "If nothing else, economics will drive this process. And we are better off when the choice of geopolitical alignments for Ukraine is backed by a broad segment of the country's population. At the same time, U.S. interests aren't served if Yanukovych and his supporters are driven closer into Moscow's orbit."
