NEW YORK, March 19 (UPI) -- The Bush administration has agreed to support a Saudi Arabian peace plan for Israel and Palestine. Superficially, the plan, with no substantive difference, is the same Saudi peace plan first proposed in 2002 that the Bush administration rejected. The administration's willingness to join this Saudi initiative now is more than it appears. The agreement to join with the Saudis to advance their proposal acknowledges the American defeat in Iraq.
This new covenant includes Israel, Jordan and Lebanon. The simple plan will bring a dreadful, though inevitable, catharsis to the Middle East. And if the plan is successful, Saudi Arabia will emerge as the dominant power in the Arab world, in a tacit partnership with Israel.
The common enemy as understood by the parties to the Saudi agreement is Iran and the Iranian-sponsored paramilitaries: The Mahdi militia in Iraq, Hamas in the Palestinian territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Saudi plan calls for a cooperative undertaking to rid the Middle East of Iranian influence by significantly weakening those paramilitary groups. The design anticipates that Iran will be drawn into a costly, futile effort in support of its surrogates.
The Bush administration has agreed to allow the Saudis to fund and support the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. Several members of the Saudi aristocracy have supported the Sunni insurgency since its emergence following the invasion and the administration's ill-conceived purge of the Baath Party and the Iraqi army. The mechanics of the plan depend on their considerable influence within the insurgency. The Sunni paramilitary, properly directed, with American acquiescence and military support, will contest the Iranian supported Shiite militias.
Israel will move to defeat Hezbollah on its northern border, and within Lebanon, with the government of Lebanon's support. The Palestine Liberation Organization, with Israeli and American help, is expected to subdue Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza.
The Iranians are aware of the Saudi plan. They have tried to intimidate the parties to the agreement by exaggerating their capacity to construct a nuclear weapon. They have also exaggerated the competence of their long-range missiles.
The administration now calculates that the only tactic it can successfully employ against the Sunni insurgency is to give them what they want -- if by doing so, American interests are realized. Since this plan has been agreed to, violence in Iraq by the Sunni insurgents against American troops has fallen by 30 percent. That is clearly not the result of the surge in American troops. Those additional troops have been assigned, almost exclusively, to the Shiite areas of Baghdad controlled by the Mahdi militia. The Sunni have, with the connivance of Saudi Arabia, substantially curtailed their attacks on American troops following the president's approval of the Saudi peace proposal. The administration, however, will claim this new tactic has succeeded.
The attacks by the Sunni on the Shiites following the invasion and occupation by the United States have always been a purely secular power struggle. The Sunni insurgents are remnants of Saddam's old regime. Iraq under Saddam was a secular nation. The hierarchy of that regime was not Muslim fundamentalists, but rather Western-oriented, non-religious Sunni. Saddam would not have tolerated religious fanaticism in his army or the Baath Party of either sect. He could never have remained in power if he did so. His ruthless suppression of the Shiite fundamentalists makes this clear. Saddam understood, as the United States now understands, that Shiite fundamentalism sponsored by Iran is a threat to whomever would govern Iraq.
The administration will claim the coming escalation of the violence by the Sunni against the Shiite militia is entirely sectarian in nature. They will claim that American forces cannot hope to stop these attacks and should not attempt to take sides in a struggle inspired by religious intolerance. The opposite, of course, will be true. The administration will support the Sunni, as agreed. Resurgence of Sunni dominance in Iraq, by elimination of the Shiite threat, is the only reasonable, and only practical, course.
This simple Saudi plan will have terrible consequences. The reality of the Middle East, however, leaves no other course.
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(Morgan Strong was an adviser to CBS News' "60 Minutes" on the Middle East. He is a former professor of Middle Eastern History at Mercy College and The State University of New York.)
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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
