WASHINGTON, March 16 (UPI) -- Saudi Arabia will be hosting an Arab summit later this month. On the agenda will figure two of the Middle East's most burning issues -- the war in Iraq and the situation in the Palestinian territories. However, at the center of the debate will figure a much older point of contention: the power play between Iran and the Arab world for control of the region.
The rivalry between the two predominant sects of Islam has been going on since the schism between Shiites and Sunni Muslims first occurred in the 7th century over a dispute as to who would succeed the prophet Mohammad. Shiites contend that the descendants of Mohammad's daughter, Fatima, and son-in-law, Ali, were deprived of divinely ordained leadership.
The rest, as they say, is history. But people have long memories in this part of the world where yesteryears' history can incite as much fervor as yesterday's news stories.
In Iraq, as in the Palestinian territories, not to mention Lebanon, Iran -- read here the Shiites -- are engaged in the political equivalent of a game of chicken with Arab world -- read here the Sunnis. And King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia does not want to be the first one to blink.
Iraq, with which Saudi shares a common border to its north, is a major preoccupation for Riyadh. Saudi Arabia's rulers look at Iran's rapidly growing influence -- in what has traditionally been a Sunni-controlled region -- with much trepidation.
A Shiite-dominated Iraq under the direct influence of Iran's mullahcracy is good reason for Saudi worry. Saudi Arabia's eastern province -- where the majority of the kingdom's oil fields and refineries are concentrated -- is heavily populated by Shiites. For the moment, the eastern province remains quiet and its people obedient to the crown.
But it does not require much in terms of scratching the surface to find reason to stir trouble for Riyadh, should Iran find the need to. That, for example, might happen if Iran finds that the Saudis are paying too much attention to Iraq. Or in the Palestinian territories, where Saudi Arabia favors President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah over Iranian-backed Hamas. Or in Lebanon where Saudis support the country's Sunnis over the Shiites.
That is what the Iraqi insurgency is fighting for today; the very survival of the Sunnis in Iraq. For their misfortune, the Iraqi resistance allowed itself to be infiltrated by al-Qaida and other jihadists dreaming of fighting the 'American infidels' and with aspirations of martyrdom on their minds. The result was that the "insurgents" became bundled by the U.S. military into a single unit of "bad guys."
Eventually, relations between al-Qaida and Iraqi Sunni tribesmen soured to the point where foreign jihadists clashed with local tribal leaders. At that point, the tribal leaders distanced themselves from al-Qaida. Thanks to Jordanian mediation efforts, meetings between Sunni leaders and U.S. officials were arranged in the Jordanian capital, Amman.
Fearing a resurgence of Sunni domination, Iraq's Shiites -- some, like the Mahdi army of the young firebrand cleric Muqtada Sadr -- have taken it upon themselves to counter attack. And the killing of Sunnis continued, this time generating more violence from the Shiites. And in turn more violence from the Sunnis, dragging the country down to the brim of the civil war Iraq finds itself in today.
Another item that is sure to arise at the Saudi summit is the issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions. If you think Washington is concerned by Iran going nuclear, just think how the Saudis must feel being within striking range of Iran's Shehab missiles.
In the Palestinian territories Iran is trying to impose its political stamp by proxy of Hamas. Although Hamas is made up of Sunnis, they enjoy the support and backing of Iran. Being indebted to Iran means that Hamas will eventually come to realize that it has to respond to the Islamic republic's guidance.
But a clearer example of the Saudi-Iranian clash of giants is nowhere more visible than in Lebanon, where the struggle is clearly one between Iran (and its Syrian ally) on one side, and Saudi Arabia (supported by the West and the so-called moderate Arabs) on the other.
If you are somewhat confused by Middle Eastern politics, allow me to confuse you some more.
Saudi Arabia has been playing a smart game so far. In Iraq, members of the Saudi royal family are said to have been supporting the Sunni insurgency, providing them with financial support, fighters and ammunition. These insurgents have then used those guns and munitions to fight the Shiites, and yes, U.S. troops.
Yet Saudi Arabia remains largely dependent on the U.S. military to bail it out if it were ever to come under serious attack.
What will be worth watching out for at the Saudi summit will not be whatever diplo-speak is regurgitated in the final communiqué. Rather, it will be interesting to see what actions -- if any -- are adopted by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah of Jordan and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt to get Iran to blink first.
That will be the summit's focal point. The rest will be theatrics.
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