WASHINGTON, March 2 (UPI) -- The diplomatic ballet of comings and goings by Lebanon's political leaders to Washington lends one to presume that the Bush administration is suddenly becoming more interested, and possibly more concerned, by the precarious situation in Lebanon.
During the past few weeks Amine Gemayel, a former president and member of the influential Gemayel family and one of the keystone Christian clans in the country was accorded a 30-minute audience with President George W. Bush and several of his top foreign policy advisers. Then just last week Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze community and member of the March 14 pro-democracy movement, was also received by the president at the White House.
In separate interviews with United Press International following their White House meetings both Gemayel and Jumblatt said they had received iron-clad assurances from President Bush that the United States would stand by and support the pro-democracy March 14 movement, as well as the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.
Pro-Hezbollah press in Beirut accused Jumblatt of "turning to the devil for help."
Following its summer war with Israel in which Hezbollah, although seen by many as victorious simply for resisting far superior Israeli forces when entire Arab armies failed -- the Lebanese Shiite movement in fact found itself removed from the border area with Israel, replaced by a UNIFIL version 2.0 and a revamped Lebanese army. As such, Hezbollah felt it had to mark political points in Beirut or risk losing face and with that, power.
Backed by Iran and Syria, the Shiite Hezbollah movement has since been applying pressure -- in various stages -- on Siniora and his government to resign. The Shiite group under the leadership of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claims that following the resignation of cabinet ministers loyal to Hezbollah, the government is no longer representative of the people and should therefore step down. Such a move would pave the way for a new government in which Hezbollah and its Christian ally, followers of the maverick former Lebanese army Gen. Michel Aoun, would take over the government, thus giving the majority vote to Hezbollah and its allies.
This is the coup d'etat Jumblatt keeps referring to.
To show it meant business, Hezbollah ordered several hundreds of its followers to lay siege to Siniora's office for weeks on end. Suddenly a city of tents bloomed around the prime minister's office where demonstrators kept vigil around the clock in what resembled a medieval siege by serfs around the lords' manor.
Stepping up the pressure Hezbollah then called for a number of general strikes. The last one resulted in serious street clashes, including sniping between Hezbollah's Shiites and Sunni Muslims loyal to the government that left several dead. Were it not for the cool heads kept by Lebanese army officers this last strike could have degenerated into the beginning of a new civil war.
With tension mounting a notch everyday Jumblatt said "Lebanon was on the verge of a coup d'état." The Druze leader also warned that Hezbollah, with support from Iran and Syria, wanted to turn Lebanon into an Islamic republic based on the Iranian model.
A clear indication of the rising tension is the renewed demand for weapons in the Lebanese capital. One source, which was confirmed by the United Nations, reported truckloads of munitions crossing from Syria into Lebanon carrying 60mm mortars destined for Hezbollah. Sixty millimeter mortars have short range and are ideal for city fighting.
Another clear indicator is the price of the ubiquitous AK47 Kalashnikov automatic rifle that has more than doubled in price, going from $300 to $700 and more, according to some very reliable sources.
The question is what exactly can Washington do to support the legitimate government in Beirut and alleviate some of the pressures imposed by Hezbollah on the Lebanese government?
When U.S. State Department officials put the question to a group of visiting Lebanese politicians during an impromptu meeting in Washington last week, no one was able to come up with a comprehensive answer.
Someone said sanctions. We tried those in Iraq, remember? That did not seem to have done much good other than to help garner greater dislike of Americans and help make Saddam richer.
Maybe diplomacy rather than strong-arm tactics is the answer. Maybe something will come out of the new diplomatic campaign aimed at bringing Iran and Syria to a "meeting of neighbors" to discuss Iraq's future, a meeting the U.S. has agreed to attend. For the sake of the Lebanese, let Lebanon not become the sacrificial lamb of Middle Eastern diplomacy.
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