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Analysis:U.N. debates on Sudan's neighbors

By WILLIAM M. REILLY, UPI U.N. Correspondent

UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 27 (UPI) -- The U.N. Security Council has begun considering Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's recommendations to establish a U.N. presence in Central African Republic and Chad, both neighbors of Sudan's conflict-torn Darfur region.

After Tuesday's initial closed-door session some diplomats said generally positive reactions were reported from the capitals of Sudan's two bordering countries, but CAR indicated it wanted only a civilian international presence, perhaps police, rather than a military peacekeeping force to answer the violence in Sudan's westernmost region spilling over its borders.

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Last week, Ban proposed sending a nearly 11,000-strong peacekeeping mission to eastern Chad to protect civilians and deter cross-border attacks, as he painted a very grim picture of the humanitarian situation.

"Eastern Chad is facing a multifaceted security and humanitarian crisis, which includes ongoing clashes between government forces and Sudan-based Chadian rebels, cross-border attacks on civilians by Sudan-based militia, the presence of Sudanese rebels on Chadian territory, ethnic violence, internal displacement, inter-communal tensions and banditry," he said in his latest report to the 15-member body.

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"The result is an environment of uncertainty, vulnerability and victimization of the local communities and the 232,000 Sudanese refugees in the region, and, above all, of the 120,000 internally displaced persons in eastern Chad," the report said.

Ban pointed out while Chadian armed forces recently pushed rebels back to the border with Darfur or beyond, prospects for durable peace and security in the area were still unclear.

Additionally, the crisis in Darfur showed no signs of abating, and continued unrest in the region was a major impediment to establishing peace and stability in eastern Chad, Ban said. In Chad itself, hostilities between the government and armed opposition groups continued, and efforts at political dialogue have not gained momentum.

Inter-communal tensions, which constitute a threat to the civilian population, were also a cause for concern. An open-ended deployment of a U.N. peacekeeping force into such a challenging environment would carry distinct and serious risks, the secretary-general said. Chief among these was the possibility armed groups may view a U.N. force as interfering with their military agenda and decide to attack it.

That meant it would be imperative "to obtain assurances from Chadian rebel groups that they would recognize the impartial character of a United Nations presence," he said.

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There was also the possibility a U.N. force, while carrying out its protection functions in such a fluid environment, "could find itself caught in the cross-fire between belligerents."

Ban said in order to mitigate such risks, a U.N. force "should be clearly focused on two principal objectives: protecting civilians at risk, particularly internally displaced persons and refugees; and deterring cross-border attacks through its presence."

Should the council choose to send a mission, the secretary-general recommended "a force the size of a standard infantry division, comprising nine infantry battalions, with two or three battalions in each sector in Chad and two infantry companies in the CAR, a force reconnaissance company and a force reserve of a light battalion, supported by a military air component of nine utility helicopters, with two armed observation helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicle detachments and two fixed-wing observation aircraft.

"The total force would number some 10,900" troops, Ban continued. "This option places more reliance on infantry troops being in place to meet operational requirements, while sacrificing some air mobility. It offers a lower degree of risk regarding the protection of civilians and would be less vulnerable to the constraints of weather."

He said if the situation deteriorated further after a U.N. deployment, provision should be made "for a rapidly deployable capacity, over the horizon, "at a minimum of one further infantry battalion of 850 (troops) all ranks" that would be authorized when the enabling resolution for the mission was passed to be able to reinforce the mission if necessary.

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Such a multidimensional operation in eastern Chad would require the full support and cooperation of the government, where President Idriss Deby has already voice objection to military units on his eastern flank.

Ban also proposed "a modest deployment" of U.N. military and police personnel in the northeast of CAR where "the situation is less acute and the agreement between the government and rebel groups to negotiate an end to their conflict is an encouraging development.

"At the same time, there is continued risk that violence may erupt again, as long as there is conflict across the border in the Sudan and eastern Chad," the secretary-general said in his report. The CAR deployment "would have a stabilizing effect on the situation in north-eastern CAR."

There has been no apparent objective voiced by the CAR government.

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