WASHINGTON, Feb. 23 (UPI) -- Protesters took to the streets of Yangon Thursday as they demanded more freedom from the authoritarian Myanmar government, marking the first time in nearly nine years that some people were finally prepared to air their grievances publicly. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that the Junta will be toppled or even swayed to change by a grass-roots movement any time soon.
For one, the protest consisted of no more than about 20 people waiving placards and clamoring for better living standards for about half an hour, according to western media reports. For another, even such a small-scale demonstration was quickly put down by government authorities.
The outburst shows "amazing bravery by a small group of people," said Robert Templer, director of the Asia program at the International Crisis Group in New York. Nevertheless, he warned that it would be premature to argue that the demonstration was a harbinger of changes to come.
Georgetown University's director of Asian studies program David Steinberg agreed.
Tempting though it may be to see the movement as light at the end of the tunnel, "there will be no change in government...that's a long way coming," he said, adding that "there's violation of human rights, the economy is in shambles, but by no means is the country going to collapse."
Another reason why the protest is unlikely to be a sign of more calls for freedom in the future is the fact that Myanmar's military actually has a stronger hold on the country than it did in 1988, the last time the country had anything close to a civil uprising. At that time, there were widespread demonstrations across the country that called for the establishment of a democratic government, and while free elections were held for the first time in nearly three decades in 1990 that led to a landslide victory of political dissident Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the election results were made void by the State Law and Order Restoration Council. While Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Suu Kyi remains a powerful figure in the country's political landscape and a symbol of the regime's oppressiveness overseas, her actions remain tightly controlled by the Junta.
Indeed, the government's control of the population has only intensified over the years as the military is now more powerful than it ever has been, according to analysts. As such, it was easy enough for the Junta to stop the small-scale protest, and reportedly arrested about one-third of those who took part, according to some news organizations. Meanwhile, two Myanmar journalists working for Japanese media outlets Kyodo News Service and Nippon Television respectively were detained, as was one reporter working for a local publication. All, however, were released after several hours of interrogation.
Still, the fact that some were brave enough to protest in the first place, and to protest over economic conditions, rather than less immediately compelling issues such as human rights, indicates there may be a small but not insignificant movement pushing not only for regime change, but also trying to rally more support for their cause.
One analyst who regularly visits Myanmar said on condition of anonymity that regime change is more likely to come from within the military ranks, given that the Junta has been so efficient in suppressing political opposition.
Furthermore, the government has been manipulating statistics and bombarded the population with so much propaganda about how good things were now. While such information may not fool foreigners, it was accepted by the majority of the population, making them less likely to demonstrate for political change, the source said.
But those who have access to outside information and understand the country's lost opportunities will be more likely to want an overthrow, or at least a fundamental change, in the current political structure, he argued.
"There is bound to be feeling within the military that they've been betrayed by the leaders...so they'll want to take control," the source said. "It won't come from the foot soldiers, but someone already in the higher ranks."
