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Analysis: U.S. missile plans for Europe

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

BERLIN, Feb. 14 (UPI) -- The United States has irritated Russia with its plan to place an anti-missile system in Eastern Europe, and even within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the move is controversial.

In his by now infamous speech at the 43d Munich Conference on Security Policy, Russian President Vladimir Putin last weekend accused Washington of provoking a Cold War-like arms race with its plan to place ground-to-air missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic.

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Washington claims the system, which foresees ten bunker-protected rockets to be stationed in Poland and a radar unit in the Czech Republic, is to protect the United States and its allies against rockets armed with nuclear warheads fired by the likes of North Korea and Iran. But Moscow sees the missiles as threats against its territory, and questions that their placement in Europe makes sense at all.

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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov on Tuesday told German newspaper Die Welt that Iran would need missiles with a range of roughly 3,500 miles to reach Central Europe, carriers it doesn't have (the Iranian missiles are believed to have a range of just over 1,000 miles). Developing such systems would take Tehran "at least 20 years," Ivanov said.

The system would make much more sense if it's placed in Turkey, Afghanistan or Iraq, he added.

As for protecting the United States against attacks from the wavy regime of Kim Jong Il, Ivanov said a "look at a globe" would prove such reasoning illegitimate -- Moscow claims a North Korean rocket would not be fired over Europe, but be sent on the shorter eastward path, over open water.

Germany's Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung Wednesday evening told the foreign press corps in Berlin that generally, Germany supported the U.S. missile system. He added, however, that he also understood some of his Russian colleague's concerns.

"Together with NATO, we have to enter an intense dialogue with Russia to alleviate those fears," he said.

Jung said the system could be helpful for European security. Asked by United Press International whether the system should be included in a NATO framework, Jung said: "We certainly should think in that direction."

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Washington is currently testing the missile system in Alaska, where 14 rockets (later 21 rockets) are stationed to defend continental America. The rockets would intercept incoming missiles and destroy them with a direct hit. The system, which Washington hopes to be operational by 2011, still is far from perfect, however, as several tests have failed.

While both the Polish and the Czech government have said they were generally positive about the U.S. system, within the population, the missiles are controversial.

A majority of Czechs and Poles opposes U.S. weapons near their homes, also because of fear that their countries as hosts for the U.S. military could become targets of terrorist attacks. Several politicians in Warsaw argue the Polish public should decide in a referendum over the fate of the American missile system.

Washington is expected to lobby for increased cooperation with Europe when it comes to stand against nuclear threats; Washington knows that a first strike against Iran, reportedly mulled by the staff around Vice President Dick Cheney, will not find much backing in Europe given the disaster stemming from the war in Iraq. In light of Europe's large Muslim minority, politicians there are likely to bank on further talks with Tehran rather than following a U.S. appeal for the use of force -- no matter how long diplomacy efforts will remain fruitless.

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When it comes to the missile system, there are more potential allies in Eastern Europe, namely Ukraine, a country that has announced its interest to be included in the U.S. system. Moscow fears that this will pave the way for the Russian satellite state to be gulped by NATO, solidifying the irreversible break-up of the former Soviet Union and destroying any dreams of a loose military confederation based on the former Soviet states.

Yet such dreams may have been buried already in Munich. Karel Schwarzenberg, the Czech foreign minister, stressed that the Czech Republic would make a decision independent of Russia's concerns. He said Putin's aggressive rhetoric delivered "perfect arguments for an expansion of NATO."

Putin said in Munich the U.S. rockets didn't concern him that much. "Russia has weapons that can overcome this system."

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