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Analysis: Seoul's N.Korea burden

By LEE JONG-HEON, UPI Correspondent

SEOUL, Feb. 12 (UPI) -- At a time when nuclear envoys are struggling to reach a deal on persuading North Korea to end its nuclear arms program in return for massive energy aid, critics and the opposition in South Korea have expressed concerns about the country's financial demands.

North Korea continues to demand large energy shipments in exchange for taking steps toward denuclearization. It remains to be seen how much South Korea and the other four countries involved in the six-nation nuclear talks will commit themselves in a joint aid package to the impoverished North.

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South Korea has said the burden of energy aid should be shared, stressing denuclearization of the Korean peninsula will benefit the United States, Japan, China and Russia, or all parties involved in the talks.

But critics and the opposition party here say Seoul may foot the entire bill because South Korea is likely to chair a working group on economic and energy assistance to the North under the six-nation dialogue formula. Other working groups would be chaired by other parties to discuss denuclearization, normalization of diplomatic relations and a peace treaty formally ending the 1950-53 Korean War.

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Japan has ruled out funding an energy deal for the North, citing a dispute over kidnapped Japanese. "It is clear that we cannot provide aid (to North Korea) unless there is progress on the abduction issue," Foreign Minister Taro Aso said.

The United States has been kept mum on the burden sharing, hinting at its reluctance to shoulder a considerable share. The New York Times reported South Korea is expected to pay for fuel oil shipments to the North, while the United States would begin talks over normalization of relations with the North -- indicating Washington would play only a political role.

Russia prefers forgiving the North's debts instead of providing it with energy. Moscow has reportedly decided to write off 80 percent of $8 billion owed by North Korea. China, host of the six-party talks, has already played the most important role in resolving the nuclear standoff in a diplomatic manner.

With mounting concerns over the costs of the proposed energy deal, South Korea's main opposition Grand National Party called for the Seoul government to refrain from taking a leading role in supplying heavy fuel oil to the North, indicating it would not approve any budgets.

The largest party in the National Assembly said it is ludicrous for South Korea to take on the bulk of the burden in relieving Pyongyang's energy needs.

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"The issue of providing North Korea with heavy oil should be shared fairly among the participants of the six-party talks and the government should do its utmost to achieve this arrangement," GNP spokeswoman Na Kyung-won said in a statement.

The party has long been critical of Seoul's unconditional economic aid to the North, saying such an aid would help prolong the life of the totalitarian regime that oppresses its people and endangers the stability of Northeast Asia.

Analysts say South Korea may pay up to 6.5 trillion won ($6.9 billion) to meet the North's energy demand as Pyongyang is demanding 2 million tons of fuel oil annually, plus 2 million kilowatts of electricity for taking the steps in toward denuclearization.

The 2 million kilowatts of electrical power is equal to the amount which two light-water reactors that were to have been built under a 1994 accord between the United States and North Korea would have generated.

If the North is given 500,000 metric tons of heavy oil -- the same amount provided under the 1994 deal -- South Korea and other four parties should pay for $30 million to $40 million each. If the four others refuse to pay, the South is expected to foot the entire bill of $150 million to $200 million for the fuel costs.

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The construction of new light-waters reactors would cost 1 trillion won ($1.1 billion). South Korea has already promised to supply North Korea with 2 million kilowatts of electricity free of charge if the communist country agrees to abandon its nuclear ambitions, which would cost some 8 trillion won ($8.5 billion).

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