JERUSALEM, Feb. 12 (UPI) -- In the coming days and perhaps weeks, the two major Palestinian parties will try to form a national unity government, but it is not clear how long it will survive.
The two parties, Fatah and Hamas, took the first significant step last Thursday in the elegant Saudi al-Safa Palace near the Kaaba in Mecca. There, President Mahmoud Abbas of the nationalist Fatah party, and Khaled Mashaal and Prime Minister Ismail Hanieyh of the Islamic Hamas movement, agreed on several issues.
The most important decision was to order an immediate cease fire to what former minister Ghassan Khatib described as, "The bloodiest ever internal confrontations between Palestinian factions."
"The main goal there was to prevent bloodletting," former Minister for Prisoners affairs, Sufian Abu Zaida said.
Fatah and Hamas have concluded several earlier cease-fire agreements that collapsed. This time, the top leaders concluded it.
They resolved to form a national unity government and worked out a power-sharing plan. Neither side would have a majority in the new cabinet. Haniyeh will be prime minister and Fatah will designate his deputy. The foreign minister will be Ziad Abu Amro, an independent who is close to Abbas but whom Hamas backed in the elections. The finance minister will be Salaam Fayyad, of the small Third Way Party who had held that post in the previous Fatah government and commands donor state's confidence.
However, there is no agreement, yet, on who should be interior minister. It is a key position since he commands many of the security forces. There is no joint platform, the future of the security force that Hamas formed in the Gaza Strip is undecided, former minister Mohammad Dahlan who has commanded the Fatah groups in the recent fighting in Gaza is continuing to build his forces, it is not clear who will control the border crossings (it has been Abbas, so far), nor how money is to be handled. Small groups such as the Islamic Jihad and popular resistance committees are not part of the agreement, there are unsettled vendettas, and some militants will listen to their leaders -- when they feel like it. Fundamental ideological differences between Fatah and Hamas still exist so there are many potential spoilers even before one considers the crucial differences over Israel.
Abbas accepts the demands that the Quartet (the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations) reiterated last Friday. The Palestinian government should be, "Committed to nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Roadmap" for peace devised in 2003, it said.
The incumbent Hamas-led government's refusal to meet those demands led to an international boycott and to withholding sorely needed aid.
The Mecca agreement seemed to side step these differences. Israel was not mentioned. There was no explicit reference to non-violence, and no "acceptance" of previous agreements and obligations that the Palestine Liberations Organization made with Israel.
Instead, upon commissioning Haniyeh to form the next government, Abbas said: "I call upon you to respect the Arab and international legitimacy (meaning the United Nations) resolutions and the agreements signed by the PLO."
"Respect," Abbas said, not "accept" as the Quartet demanded.
After the agreement was announced, two senior Hamas spokesmen denied their movement recognized Israel.
"We will never recognize Israel," Hamas spokesman Nizar Rayyan reportedly declared.
For Abbas who wanted to launch what he called, "a wide (international) campaign, in order to end the embargo," such statements were exactly what he did not need.
Walid Awad, international secretary of Fatah's Central Media Commission sent out e-mails arguing "respect" for previously signed agreements "has a positive connotation." At least it means, "Not to do anything to undermine or change what was agreed."
The Mecca agreement has encountered criticism within Fatah and Hamas. The Jerusalem Post quoted a senior Fatah official as having said that last Thursday, "The Saudis told us that we (had) only two hours to sign an agreement and that they (wouldn't) accept any excuses.
"It was a real threat that made President Abbas very nervous and forced him to accept almost all of Hamas' conditions," the official said.
The Director of Israel's Military Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, Sunday told the Cabinet the Saudis felt the continued Palestinian infighting was benefiting Iran.
Muslim-Shiite Iran has been helping the Hamas-led government, drawing it into its camp along with Syria and Hezbollah, and the Muslim-Sunni Saudis wanted to stop it.
There seemed to be another consideration: The Hamas-Fatah battles produced no clear victor. The Islamic movement seemed to have the upper hand in Gaza. Its gunmen killed more Fatah commanders than vice versa, Israeli intelligence Brig. Gen. in the reserves Shalom Harari noted. However Fatah has the upper hand in the West Bank.
At Bir Zeit University in the West Bank, political science professor Ali Jarbawi predicted the internal fighting would cease at least for a while. Fatah and Hamas will succeed in forming a national unity government since they have worked out an agreement and want to see it implemented.
In the long run much will depend on the international and Israeli reaction, Jarbawi said.
People inside Hamas and Fatah "don't want" the Mecca agreement. If there will be a political settlement on the horizon, and if foreign aid will arrive, the agreement's supporters will be proven right.
However, if there will be no money and no political horizon, the Mecca agreement might stand for only a few months, Jarbawi said.
