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Analysis: S.Korea's Roh raises stakes

By LEE JONG-HEON, UPI Correspondent

SEOUL, Jan. 10 (UPI) -- A desperate political bid by South Korea's unpopular leader Roh Moo-hyun is likely to backfire as the majority of people are opposed to his sudden proposal of introducing a U.S.-style four-year presidency replacing the existing single five-year term.

President Roh has proposed amending the constitution to allow future presidents two consecutive four-year terms, saying the change would lead to more stable governments.

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In a special address on Tuesday, Roh said he wanted the constitution to be revised before the country's presidential election slated for December. His five-year single term ends early next year.

Roh said his proposal was designed to establish a new political mechanism to help ensure political stability and policy consistency, but it was widely considered as a "political maneuver" aimed at increasing his clout at a time when he is rapidly becoming a lame duck.

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According to opinion polls released on Wednesday, a majority of the people support the introduction of a two-term presidency, but want the issue to be shelved until Roh leaves office, highlighting deepening public distrust of the reformist, yet maverick, leader.

A poll jointly conducted by the country's largest newspaper Chosun Ilbo and Gallup Korea showed 64.2 percent support a change to a four-year two-term presidency, while 33.5 percent are opposed. But 63.3 percent said the issue should be delayed to the next government, while only 27.1 percent want to amend the constitution during Roh's term.

Another joint survey by the Seoul-based polling agency KOSI and the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper shows 52.1 percent are opposed to Roh's idea of changing the presidential term, while 44.4 percent support his proposal. A poll by state-run broadcaster KBS showed those opposed reached 53 percent while 47 percent supported Roh's idea.

The surveys also show a majority of South Koreans consider Roh's proposal a political scheme to break his leadership deadlock.

The KOSI poll also shows 53 percent believe Roh's proposal was aimed at influencing the upcoming presidential election with the popularity of the ruling camp hitting a record-low of less than 10 percent. Only 36.7 percent regard Roh's proposal as a move to boost political stability.

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In addition, the poll shows 78 percent of those surveyed expect Roh's idea to be scrapped as it would fail to win parliamentary approval, whereas only 19.4 percent expressed an optimistic view.

The bill for constitutional revision requires approval by two-thirds of the National Assembly and then majority support in a referendum. The main opposition Grand National Party controls 127 in the unicameral Parliament's 296 seats, enough to kill Roh's bill.

On the back of the public response, the GNP decided Wednesday to boycott any discussion over the constitutional revision, describing Roh's bid as a "conspiracy" to influence the presidential election.

"We define President Roh's proposal of constitutional revision as a political offensive aimed at avoiding the responsibility of policy failures and shaking the political landscape ahead of presidential elections," the GNP said in a declaration.

Chances look slim for the Roh's camp to win the presidential election as its popularity has sharply plunged. According to recent surveys, some 70 percent of South Korean people expect the GNP to take power in the December vote.

More than 40 percent of South Koreans expressed support for GNP presidential hopeful Lee Myung-bak, former Seoul mayor, and 13.5 percent back former GNP leader Park Geun-hye.

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Just less than 2 percent voiced support for candidates from the ruling party. An independent politician, former Prime Minister Goh Kun, gets 12.6 percent of support.

Many political analysts also said Roh's proposal was a politically-motivated move to avoid appearing a lame duck in his last year in office. Roh's approval rating has remained at a record low of just above 10 percent.

Business leaders also expressed concerns that the political debate over the presidential system can fuel uncertainties which would serve as yet another drag on the country's struggling economy.

"President Roh's move seemed aimed at restoring his clout and influence presidential election," said Kim Ho-seop, a professor at Seoul's Chung-Ang University.

But if Roh's bid was rejected, Kim and other analysts warn, he would more quickly to become a lame duck and his political clout would dwindle faster in his remaining one year.

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