WASHINGTON, Jan. 9 (UPI) -- The Middle East, it seems, has always been sitting on the edge of a disaster. If a report published by the London Sunday Times carries any water, yet another disaster may be in the making.
The paper, citing official Israeli (unnamed) sources, raises the possibility that Israel might deploy tactical nuclear weapons against the Islamic Republic of Iran in order to thwart its nuclear ambitions. The lengthy and in depth article by the London Sunday Times reported that the Israeli air force -- to whom the job of eradicating Iran's nuclear threat would befall -- has been practicing dry runs for several weeks now. Israeli pilots have been flying practice missions as far as Gibraltar, about an equal distance from Israel that the Natanz and Arak facilities in Iran are from the Israeli's air force base in the Negev.
The probability that Israel would become the first nation to use nuclear weapons since the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan at the close of World War II is indeed a very frightening one. The political implications of such an act would be as lethal as the fallout from the nuclear weapons deployed. (Although some experts believe the fallout would be minimal.)
Imagine the anger, frustration and growing hate such an act would generate. It is worth recalling that it took a war that gave the Arabs a partial victory, though a great morale booster, before peace negotiations with Israel could become a reality.
It required another war -- the October 1973 war -- to wash away the humiliating defeat of the Arab armies of Egypt, Syria and Jordan suffered in the June 1967 war launched by Israel as a preemptive measure, before Egypt, and in its wake Jordan, could look the Israelis in the eyes and sit down to negotiate peace as equals.
The deployment of a nuclear device by Israel against a Muslim country -- albeit one run by a Shiite theocracy, and for which their Sunni neighbors would shed no tears -- would set the stage for the Middle East conflict to continue for another several more generations.
Unless of course the information concerning Israel's potential tactical nuclear attack on Iran was not a "leak," but rather a "plant." Why? Because it serves two purposes.
First, it sends a serious message to Iran's mullahs that Israel will not, under any circumstances, accept to live under the constant shadow of Iran's nuclear Sword of Damocles. Particularly when the country's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, continues to deny the existence of the Holocaust and continues to imply that the state of Israel will one day disappear along with the United States and Great Britain.
The logic behind "leaking" such sensitive information serves also to let Iran become aware of Israel's preparedness and ability to carry out such a raid. Can Israel carry out such an attack? Chances are it can. Will it carry out such an attack? Again, chances are it will, if the security of the state of Israel is at stake.
The second reason for Israel to advertise what should otherwise be top secret plans is to let the Americans know that it is taking the matter very seriously, and possibly praying that the United States act first.
Will the fallout from the Arab and Muslim streets be any softer if it were the United States rather than Israel that attacked Iran? Probably not. The damage in terms of world public opinion would shift even more, further isolating both the United States and Israel.
Should Iran suddenly come to lose its nuclear program, its Sunni neighbors -- Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey -- would in private be elated. A good portion of their citizens however, would see matters through a very different perspective. Al-Qaida, the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates would become even more empowered.
What is needed is a major political offensive running parallel with a surge in the covert field of intelligence. The CIA came about through the very efficient beginnings of its predecessor, the OSS. Maybe it would be beneficial for the CIA to look back and revisit the best of the OSS. The alternative would plunge the region into another round of disaster.
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