JERUSALEM, Jan. 10 (UPI) -- A prominent expert on Palestinian affairs has predicted the Israeli army will invade the Gaza Strip to crack down on militants.
The expert, intelligence Brig. Gen. Shalom Harari, told diplomats and foreign correspondents in Jerusalem Tuesday he believed the military "will have to enter Gaza in a very wide scale operation in the next year if not in the next six months."
Defense officials are debating whether the move should be done now when Hamas is just beginning its buildup, or wait as Israel had done in Lebanon. Israel went to war in Lebanon this summer after Hezbollah captured Israeli soldiers in a cross-border operation.
Whatever the officers decide would be a recommendation to the Cabinet that must give the order.
It would be an operation Israelis would like to avoid. They unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in 2005; reoccupying the strip with some 1.3 million people could lead to many casualties and Israel must be wary not to make Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appear to be a local version of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
On the other hand, a painful Palestinian rocket attack or an assassination of a prominent Palestinian figure such as Abbas or Fatah strongman in Gaza Mohammad Dahlan, could speed up matters, Harari predicted.
For anyone who hoped Abbas and his Fatah Party would advance the peace process, the picture Harari painted was gloomy.
A strategic alliance between Iran and Islamic hardliners in the Palestinian territories is growing rapidly, he said. The Islamic bloc in those territories commands the support of 30 to 40 percent of the population and is demanding its share in the Palestine Liberation Organization that Fatah has dominated.
Fatah is unorganized and seems to have lost the support of several small parties, including the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.
And the head of the PLO's Political Department Farouk Kaddoumi appeared in Damascus with Hamas leader Khaled Mishaal and deplored Abbas' plans for early elections.
That would not have happened if the PLO and Fatah were not so weak, Harari said.
For the first time in this part of the world a Muslim Brotherhood faction won elections and is running a government, he noted.
Hamas is part of the Muslim Brotherhood and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh's attire during a recent meeting with Abbas was significant. Abbas wore a business suit and a tie, as Haniyeh had done. This time Haniyeh was dressed like an Arab sheikh in a gown and a keffiyah headdress held in place with black rope.
"In this area of the world such things matter," Harari said.
Moreover, Haniyeh does not deliver his weekly speeches in parliament, five minutes away from his home, but on Fridays in a mosque.
Egypt, Jordan and former Syrian President Hafez Assad checked the Muslim Brotherhood's influence in their countries, but Egypt does not have much clout in neighboring Gaza. It sent 100 experts there half a year ago, but now only two generals are assigned there and they prefer to spend most of their time in Tel Aviv because Gaza is too dangerous, Harari said.
Local security men formally answerable to Abbas outnumber Hamas' men. However, Hamas' fighters have a greater readiness to fight and are six times better than Fatah's militants. Many militants who belonged to Fatah are now "sitting on the fence," Harari noted.
Meanwhile the Hamas-led government seeks to double the size of its new "Executive Force" force from 6,000 to 12,000 men.
Last week Hamas gunmen reportedly attacked the home of Preventive Security Col. Muhammad Ghareeb in Gaza. It is the force that Dahlan established.
The attackers reportedly fired automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades. Ghareeb phoned a local TV station crying for help. His wife and daughters were with him, he said.
The drama went on for two hours but police, the General Intelligence and other Fatah-affiliated forces did not intervene.
"You ask me why? Because of fear," Harari said.
The only "Fatah force" that is more courageous and obligated to its commander is Dahlan's Preventive Security, Harari added.
Initially Hamas did not want to appear especially close to Tehran. Iran is a Muslim-Shiite state that the United States considers part of the Axis of Evil.
However, Haniyeh was recently in Tehran where he was promised $350 million, and a new alliance was forged.
Instead of relying on the West, which has been boycotting the Palestinian government to force it to recognize Israel, honor agreements made with it and renounce violence, Hamas now plans to build its society, economy and army on what Harari called "the abilities of the Islamic world, mainly Iran's."
Hamas will present an image of readiness for flexibility but will not yield its principles, Harari predicted.
Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are helping build a "Hamastan" in the Gaza Strip, he continued.
They aim to build a ballistic capability and hope that with 122mm Katyushas they could pressure Israel. They are trying to build an anti-tank capability to check an Israeli invasion and obtain anti-aircraft missiles to neutralize Israel's air superiority.
Experts are being sent to Gaza to build concrete bunkers and tunnels so that militants could move from one side of a city to another without being exposed to Israeli fire. Air conditioning experts are dispatched to help build the tunnels, communications, intelligence experts are assigned, as are chemists capable of producing military-grade explosives, Harari said.
Hundreds of men will leave Gaza for Iran and elsewhere to train, he added.
Hamas tried to build a capability in the West Bank as well. However, Fatah is stronger there and Israel helped out by arresting people involved in the project, Harari reported.
