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Analysis: Germany's big 2007

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

BERLIN, Jan. 4 (UPI) -- The German government has a set of initiatives in the bag for the many challenges it faces during its European Union and Group of Eight presidencies, which began on Jan. 1, 2007.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to use the six months she has at the helm of the EU, now a 27-member body since the accession of Bulgaria and Romania, for a final attempt to revive the plan of a common constitution. The EU has been plunged into an identity crisis ever since Dutch and French voters in 2005 rejected the constitutional draft in nationwide referenda. Eighteen EU member states will have ratified the treaty by early 2007, but a decision on a constitution has to be made unanimously.

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The presidency of Germany, the largest economy in Europe, falls into the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, the agreement that formulated the framework of a common European market back in 1957. Berlin will draft a declaration recognizing the importance of the anniversary and tie that to the need to come even closer together.

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The constitution is surely not the only issue Berlin has to tackle, but it could be the trickiest one, given widespread EU fatigue all over the continent, and lame-duck situations all over Europe: British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is expected to resign next summer, and French presidential elections are held in May. Until then, no clear commitments for a policy toward the constitution will be made by Paris.

There are more potential hotbeds aside from the constitution. Kosovo's push for full independence from Serbia could fall into the German presidency, and so will the problems surrounding Turkey's membership bid.

The EU earlier this month agreed to partially freeze accession talks because Ankara failed to lift transport barriers with EU member Cyprus.

The German government has made a clear commitment to support Turkey's bid for membership, but it is no secret that Merkel's own view is a bit different, as she has long supported a privileged partnership instead of full membership for Turkey.

Nevertheless, expectations that Germany can manage the constitution crisis and a wealth of other problems are huge.

"I have the impression that the expectations are a bit too great," Merkel late last year told a group of foreign journalists that included this reporter, adding that Germany was hardly able to create "miracles" in just six months.

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That doesn't mean Merkel isn't ambitious. One of her key projects is the revival of the Middle East Quartet, comprised of the United States, the United Nations, the EU and Russia.

Merkel wants to use Germany's vastly improved ties with the United States -- her first foreign visit since taking over the presidencies was to Washington Thursday -- to bring movement into the deadlocked peace process, and German diplomats could serve as honest brokers in the conflict. Germany has a good standing in the region, as it is traditionally seen as more neutral than France or Britain.

Then there are the conflicts waging in the greater Middle East. Experts say the security situation in Afghanistan is set to further deteriorate, and negotiations to halt Iran's nuclear program have been fruitless so far. As for Iraq, it remains unsure whether U.S. President George W. Bush is going to significantly alter his strategy on the ground, a move most experts say is vital to end the sectarian violence.

But Germany, an opponent of the U.S.-led war in Iraq, for its Middle East initiatives needs Washington to succeed. On Thursday, Merkel met with Bush in the White House for working discussions. The fact that she didn't take journalists along underlines the importance of the meeting; observers say she will lay down her strategy with Bush for Germany's two presidencies and try to win him over for her plans.

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The chances are not bad. Merkel has significantly improved U.S.-German ties since she came in office in late 2005. With confident conflict diplomacy, she has won herself a good reputation in just a little over a year as Germany's chancellor; the G8 summit in Heiligendamm, northeastern Germany in June, is going to put Merkel in an even more prominent position.

The summit is still a few months away, but Merkel, who once started out as an environment minister, said she will put climate protection, next to economic issues, on top of the agenda.

Crisis events, however, can demolish the Heiligendamm meeting anytime, as proven by the 2006 G8 summit in St. Petersburg, which was set to focus on energy security but was taken over by Israel's July war in Lebanon.

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