TEL AVIV, Israel, Jan. 2 (UPI) -- Two Israelis who had represented their country in talks with Syria advocated Israel respond more positively to Syrian President Bashar Assad's calls for peace.
The two are retired Brig. Gen. Zvi Shtauber who headed the military's Strategic Planning Division and co-chaired one of the committees at the Israeli-Syrian peace talks in Shepherdstown West Virginia, at the turn of the millennium, and Prof. Itamar Rabinovich, Israel's former ambassador to Washington who headed Israel's delegation in talks with Syria.
Shtauber who now heads the Institute for National Security Studies and Rabinovich who is president of Tel Aviv University spoke up after the Mossad spy service and the military intelligence issued conflicting accounts on whether Assad really wants peace. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expressed readiness to talk with Syria providing Damascus meets his preconditions.
Shtauber said at a press conference in Tel Aviv that his experience from past talks, also with Palestinians, show that negotiations create a dynamic of their own and parties go beyond their advance plans. "Who would have believed the Palestinians would have agreed to the Oslo (accords). Who would have believed we would?" he asked. Part of the craft of negotiating is designed to maneuver the other side.
Shtauber noted his co-chairman at Shepherdstown was Waleed Muallem who is now the Syrian foreign minister. He was a sympathetic person, Shtauber recalled.
Israel does not have to invite him for talks tomorrow morning, and Shtauber doubted Assad can deliver what his father, former President Hafez Assad, failed to provide. "However, this should be carefully checked."
In an article in Haaretz Rabinovich suggested Israel express guarded readiness for talks, coordinate its moves with the United States and discreetly check how serious Assad is before beginning open and full negotiations.
The cautious reactions reflect suspicions that Assad wants talks, not an agreement.
The head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, and last month told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Assad called for peace talks whenever he faced international pressure.
"They make public statements (about peace) but have made no effort to approach the United States or Europe to try and advance the peace process. They're not willing to open negotiations without prior conditions," Dagan reportedly said.
However the head of the Military Intelligence Research Division, Brig. Gen. Yossi Baidaz said Syria is interested in a peace process. The public statements are the way Damascus sends messages, he added.
Israelis have wanted Assad to make a dramatic gesture to break the ice. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat broke the psychological barrier by traveling to Jerusalem and addressing the Knesset. However Baidaz said the Syrians would not undertake any gesture because they do not see any sign that Israel or the United States are willing to move forward.
These differences show how difficult it is to really know what goes on in an autocratic ruler's mind.
Rabinovich noted that Israelis who do not want an agreement with Syria argue Damascus will demand a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for a cold peace and partial security arrangements.
Some of these Israelis oppose a withdrawal from the Golan while some believe Assad is not serious and that his capabilities are limited.
In other words: The Syrian president is not interested in an agreement. He wants negotiations to break out of the isolation in which Syria finds himself.
According to this school of thought, Assad cannot implement a peace agreement and if Israel engaged in peace talks with Damascus there would be friction with the United States, relations with the conservative Arab regimes will be tried, and the government will face domestic criticism. All that without producing any real results.
The other school of thought, continued Rabinovich, says Assad does want an arrangement. He can conclude one and it is in Israel's interest too to reach an agreement, even if Israeli will have to withdraw from the Golan. Those strategic heights were occupied in the 1967 war.
An agreement would "settle" Israel's differences with a central Arab regime that is also a potential military enemy, help resolve the Lebanese issue, weaken the Palestinian "Rejection Front" that is based in Damascus and perhaps help lure Syria away from the Iranian orbit. Iran would then lose one of its levers in the area, he added.
The head of the foreign Ministry's Research division, Nimrod Barkan, recently noted Syria is in the radical camp but is the weak link there.
Four Israeli prime ministers - Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak were willing to withdraw from the Golan but Ariel Sharon was not and the Olmert is following Sharon.
Rabinovich suggested Olmert might have felt he lacked the political clout to make concessions to Syria.
Assad's critics in Syria want him to negotiate or fight to regain the Golan, Rabinovich added.
Some elements within the Syrian regime oppose an arrangement with Israel. They fear it would weaken the regime and the position of the Alawites, Assad's sect that is now in power, Rabinovich added.
Such an opposition existed also when the president's father, Hafez Assad, was in power. However the former president was more powerful and authoritative, Rabinovich added.
