WASHINGTON, Dec. 15 (UPI) -- The striking feature of the UPI-Zogby poll on American attitudes toward the Israel-Palestine dispute is the similarity with views in Europe. This suggests that the transatlantic political support now exists for a concerted push for a new effort to reach a settlement, which is exactly what Britain's Tony Blair and the Iraq Study Group have been urging on President George W. Bush this month.
And the fact that 63 percent of the poll of more than 6,000 Americans rated President Bush's performance on the issue as only fair or poor suggests that the voters want a different policy. Above all, a clear majority of Americans, over 55 percent in the poll, wants the U.S. government to pursue an even-handed course rather than lean to Israel, and another majority, again over 55 percent, wants their government to put pressure on both sides to reach a settlement.
And a settlement is what 90 percent of those polled want to see. Almost 60 percent said it was "very important" and over 30 percent said it was "somewhat important."
This is the more significant because of the myth that has developed in recent years that Europeans are pro-Palestinian and Americans are pro-Israeli. Certainly the Bush administration has leaned strongly to the Israeli side, according to the UPI-Zogby poll, which found almost 70 percent of respondents saying Bush leaned toward Israel, and fewer than 20 percent thinking he had followed a middle course.
But the view that Europe as a whole tends to pro-Palestinian sympathies is flawed. In a separate poll, organized this summer across the European Union by the Pew Research Trust, found that nearly two out of five Germans (37 percent) said they sympathize with Israel in the Middle East conflict compared with 18 percent who sympathize with the Palestinians. The French were evenly balanced, with 38 percent sympathizing with each side. The British were fairly balanced, with 24 percent sympathizing with Israel compared to 29 percent sympathizing with Palestinians.
The Spaniards were the clearest exception, with only 9 percent sympathizing with Israel, and 32 percent (still a minority) sympathizing with Palestinians, while most declared themselves neutral or unconcerned.
Four years ago, in the wake of Israel's response to the renewed intifada (uprising) in the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank, there was more antagonism to Israel in Europe. Israelis reacted furiously to a Eurobarometer poll run by the European Union that said most of those surveyed claimed that Israel poses the greatest threat to world peace. Almost 60 percent of the Europeans polled said Israel was more dangerous than North Korea, Iran, Iraq or Afghanistan.
One Israeli minister, Natan Sharansky, claimed this was a sign of European anti-Semitism and the Simon Wiesenthal Center said the poll results should bar the EU from any future peace negotiations.
But that was then, and times have changed. Israel has withdrawn unilaterally from the Gaza Strip, and a government was elected promising to extend the withdrawal to the West Bank, which was seen by European opinion as evidence of a sincere Israeli desire for a settlement. But the Gaza withdrawal led to no easing of tensions, as Palestinian militants used Gaza as a base from which to hit Israel with rockets, and as Palestinians in January this year elected as their new government the Hamas party, which has bluntly refused either to recognize Israel or to renounce violence. As a result, European sympathies with Israel have markedly increased.
Significantly, American public opinion is evenly balanced on whether the Bush administration and the Europeans have been right in their refusal to talk to Hamas unless, like Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization, it accepts Israel's right to exist and renounces terrorism. In the UPI-Zogby poll, 46 percent said the United States should engage with Hamas (and with Hezbollah in Lebanon) and 41.9 percent said not.
There is also a similarity between American and European public opinion over the future of Jerusalem, where those polled on each side of the Atlantic prefer the holy city of Jerusalem to be shared between the two communities rather than controlled solely by Israel. Perhaps most important for the prospects of new steps to a settlement, the UPI-Zogby poll showed Americans wanting the Israeli settlements on the West Bank to be dismantled by a significant majority of 47.2 percent to 24.6 percent.
In short, the Bush administration has all the political cover it could need from American opinion, and the prospect of strong European support, if it pursues a firm and even-handed approach of pressing both sides to reach a settlement. This is a course that is also being urged on Washington by its Arab allies, notably Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, who fear the Palestinian cause has become a rallying cry for Arab militants and Islamists.
Bush assured Tony Blair last week that he was committed to working for a just settlement based on a two-state solution, and that his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would shortly return to the region to make a new effort. But with the UPI-Zogby poll showing that more than two-thirds of those surveyed judging that Bush's policies were biased in Israel's favor, the administration's previous efforts have been seen as half-hearted and have not led far. Although Bush has openly called for an independent Palestinian state, he has not put the dedication into a Middle East settlement that the last two Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, each invested.
American public opinion knows that, and the clear conclusion to be drawn from the new UPI-Zogby poll is that they want their government to do better -- just like the Europeans. Whether this happy confluence of transatlantic public opinion will lead to policy results remains to be seen. The signs are not promising, from either side. The Bush administration is pre-occupied with Iraq and evidently lukewarm about the Iraq Study Group's call for a brisk return to international diplomacy.
And the Europeans are about to undergo a far-reaching changing of the guard, with Britain's Tony Blair and France's Jacques Chirac each expected to step down in the coming year, along with the EU's own high representative for international affairs, Javier Solana.
