BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 22 (UPI) -- The assassination of Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel, an outspoken anti-Syria politician, jolted Lebanon. But will the tremors from this political earthquake prompt the country's political foes to reconsider their intransigent stances and avert an open confrontation?
Gemayel's killing in broad daylight deepened the country's most pronounced post-civil war crisis, sparking renewed fears of sectarian clashes.
But opposing Lebanese camps, the anti-Syrian March 14 Coalition, and pro-Syria groups led by Hezbollah, have on different occasions discarded civil strife as "unacceptable," stressing the need for peaceful expression.
Gemayel's father, former President Amin Gemayel, called on his Christian Phalange Party followers to exercise self-restraint and avoid actions that might lead to violence, cautioning that "Pierre's assassins" aimed at inciting civil strife.
"We don't want reactions and revenge ... We want to protect this country and remain in the service of Lebanon," Amin Gemayel said.
With a little bit of luck and some common sense the younger Gemayel's assassination might have the reverse effect; instead of dividing the rivals, maybe the shock will jolt the opposing parties to their senses and to dialogue.
Several issues are at stake. The international court which will try defendants in the Feb. 14, 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the fate of controversial pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud whose mandate was extended for three years in September 2004 at Syria's behest and the formation of a national unity government.
"The possibility of a clash or collision has receded at present because the momentum for it has broken down," Antoine Haddad, whose Democratic Renewal Movement is a member of the March 14 Coalition, told United Press International Wednesday.
He said the anti-Syria gathering is hoping that the other camp will take time out to recalculate the arithmetic of the crisis. "We just don't believe that the other camp wants the destruction of the country and we are betting on their reasoning and reconsideration of agendas," Haddad said.
Journalist and political analyst Toufik Mishlawi contends that Gemayel's slaying placed the opposite parties on a collision course.
He argued that foreign players can play a role in easing the tensions and cooling down spirits to avoid a clash which would be detrimental for the country's future.
"The only hope depends on whether the foreign mediators can succeed in twisting the arms of local players on both sides and have them agree on certain mutual concessions," Mishlawi said. He was referring to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France and the United States, which carry influence with the anti-Syria camp.
What is not clear is who can influence the opposite side, except Iran and Syria.
The simmering struggle flared a few weeks ago when Hezbollah demanded greater representation in Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government to include Christian ally Gen. Michel Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement. Four rounds of talks proved to be futile and dialogue collapsed when five Shiite ministers from Hezbollah and Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal Movement and an allied politician resigned on Nov. 11. The move deprived the cabinet of its Shiite representation on the eve of a government meeting meant to endorse the international court's draft, which was approved nonetheless.
Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah retorted last week by insisting on the resignation of the government and holding early elections, threatening his followers will otherwise take to the street to bring the cabinet down.
Nasrallah, whose party condemned Gemayel's assassination, discarded fears of civil strife stressing that the street protests will be peaceful and democratic.
Haddad ruled out any action in the street at the time being in view of the big tensions unleashed by Gemayel's assassination.
"It will be very difficult for them to continue to threaten to resort to the street," Haddad said. He contended that even before the assassination, the street option was shrouded by two concerns, namely stirring Sunni-Shiite tensions, and the difficulty of mobilizing Aoun's Christian followers to shoulder a group known for its close ties to Syria and Iran such as Hezbollah.
Mishlawi believes the street option "will be postponed for a while ... it will be delayed and not necessarily scrapped off."
Haddad stressed that the multi-sectarian March 14 Movement, comprised of the Future Movement led by Saad Hariri, son and political heir of the slain prime minister, the Progressive Socialist Party of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and the Christian Lebanese Forces led by Samir Geagea, "will continue to propose positive initiatives to avoid collision and prevent the destruction of the country."
Although the March 14 Coalition is open to positive initiatives aimed at sparing the country further jolts, Haddad stressed that "there is a red line that no one will be allowed to cross. We simply will not accept to lose control over the government."
As a matter of fact, Jumblatt threw the ball in the pro-Syrian camp Wednesday when he called on Shiite ministers to retract their resignation and join the majority ministers in ratifying the international court, an obvious nightmare for Syria which was largely singled out as a suspect in Hariri's assassination.
"If they do that, we will then forget everything and open a new page over a national unity government that should be coupled with the election of a new president of the republic," Jumblatt said in an explicit proposal for a way out of the current crisis. He cautioned against "the great dangers of resorting to the street" to force the government's collapse, warning the other camp that such a move could backfire on them.
Jumblatt then accused Syria of being behind Gemayel's assassination, which he said is part of the chain of slayings that started with the aborted attempt on Communications Minister Marwan Hamadeh in October 2004, culminated with Hariri's slaying and continued afterwards, always targeting anti-Syria politicians and intellectuals.
Jumblatt was the second, after Saad Hariri, to bluntly blame the regime in Damascus for Tuesday's violence.
