TEL AVIV, Israel, Sept. 29 (UPI) -- "Unfortunately, some national leaders in the region, both Arab and Israeli, have missed occasions for peace more than occasions for war," noted one of Israel's foremost Middle East experts, Hebrew University Prof. Moshe Maoz.
Might that be happening again?
In an interview with the German news magazine Der Spiegel on Sept. 24, Syrian President Bashar Assad repeated his call for peace talks with Israel.
"There can be no peace in the Middle East without Syria... Syria is so determined to achieve a comprehensive peaceful solution," Assad said.
The interviewer was skeptical. "In your (recent) speech, your tone was quite a bit different. In it, you called Israel an 'enemy' and praised the 'glorious battles' of Hezbollah."
"In my speech, I used the word 'peace' 57 times," the president persisted.
In an article on bitterlemons.org Thursday, Maoz noted that an Israeli-Syrian peace process had "nearly culminated in a peace treaty."
In late 1999, early 2000, then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak was ready to accept a Syrian proposal on how to demarcate the border. It would be similar to the international boundary of 1923 and run at least 10 meters away from the Sea of Galilee's northeastern shore, recalled Maoz.
However, concerned about domestic public opinion, Barak demanded a 400-meter-wide strip. Syria's President Hafez Assad, the current president's father, abruptly rejected the deal and returned to his country's previous position demanding the border run in the lake, continued Maoz.
"It is in the interest of both Jerusalem and Damascus to reach peace," he maintained. Syria would retrieve the strategically and nationally important Golan Heights, which Israel occupied during the 1967 war, possibly receive U.S. aid for his country's ailing economy and safeguard his rule.
Israel would have peace, and an agreement with Syria could pave the way for a deal with Lebanon, he wrote. Maoz doubted Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora could conclude a formal agreement with Israel without winning the approval of Lebanon's pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah and Syria.
"Hassan Nasrallah and Bashar Assad would certainly object to any agreement with Israel that is not compatible with their interests, and are indeed capable of thwarting such an agreement, including by Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel," Maoz wrote.
However, Israelis are highly skeptical of Assad's sincerity. Officials noted that in the Der Spiegel interview, Assad said he might change his mind about peace. "When the hope disappears, then maybe war really is the only solution," the Syrian president said.
Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz thus told reporters that Assad's statements contained double-talk. There is a message of peace and a message of war, Peretz said.
A senior security official Friday told United Press International that if Assad means business, he must prove his intentions and stop backing Hamas leader Khaled Mishaal, who is based in Damascus, and cease arming Hezbollah.
At the moment, "the conditions are not suitable (for peace talks) because of (his) support for Hezbollah and Mishaal," the official stressed.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert suspected Assad was driven by fears that the United Nations' investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri would implicate Syria and results would be transferred to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague. In other words, changing the agenda might be good for him.
Maoz, too, was skeptical of the Syrian president's plans.
"Assad apparently does not believe such an option (of peace) is feasible and thus prefers to adhere to his alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, increase his influence in Lebanon and perhaps try to regain the Golan by military force, with Iranian backing. This presumed position derives not only from Assad's admiration for Nasrallah and his interest in gaining popular legitimacy," wrote Maoz.
Assad realizes that Olmert is unlikely to accept Syria's demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. The Israelis are reluctant to cede the strategic plateau that towers over northeastern Israel, and the Syrian president knows that the United States will prevent Olmert from negotiating with Syria unless Assad "capitulates to Washington's demands to stop helping Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad as well as the Iraqi insurgents," wrote Maoz.
At Wednesday's Cabinet meeting, Olmert warned ministers not to contradict the government's reaction to Assad's peace talk, in an apparent reaction to Education Minister Yuli Tamir, who said, publicly, that there is no harm in trying talks. Israel "missed opportunities (and) that cost us dearly," she said.
Olmert seemed adamant: No talks. "This is the government's line," he announced, according to a participant. "There is a collective responsibility (around this table) ... and the ministers are committed to this principle."
Ministers can speak up at the Cabinet meetings, but must fall in line once a decision is made, he continued.
"A minister who wants to argue with the government should do so (when he is) outside (the government) ... I am saying so to avoid misunderstanding and so that a minister shouldn't come with complaints if I act," the prime minister added.
