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Analysis: Rumors of Saudi-Israeli meeting

By CLAUDE SALHANI, UPI International Editor

WASHINGTON, Sept. 26 (UPI) -- Once again the Middle East rumor mill has been active. The buzz this time was around the possibility of a meeting between a member of the royal family of Saudi Arabia and an Israeli official.

Reports that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may have met with someone from the Saudi royal family first emerged during the 34-day war between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah.

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Why would Saudi royals agree to meet Israelis? Ever since he replaced his ailing brother King Fahd upon Fahd's death, King Abdullah has come to realize that the Middle East will continue to bubble away in turmoil unless there can be a settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli dispute. Therefore, since his ascension to the throne, he has been working behind the scenes in an effort to break through the deadlock.

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They say that politics makes strange bedfellows; and indeed it does. The political reality in the Middle East is that some of the more moderate Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan share much of the same concerns as Israel. High on that list comes Iran with its nuclear ambitions, and the growing popularity of Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, armed and financed by Iran.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan -- traditionalist Sunni countries -- look at the Islamic republic's growing influence with great trepidation. Moderate Sunni Arabs would have not been disappointed had Israel emerged victorious and defeated Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah's Shiite militant movement. But it was the reverse that happened. Hezbollah and Nasrallah came out of the 34-day war stronger than ever.

In a blatant demonstration of force, Nasrallah gathered some 800,000 supporters for a "victory rally" in Beirut meant to celebrate Hezbollah's triumph over Israel. The meeting was something of a slap in the face to Israel, which tried, unsuccessfully, to eliminate the militant sheik. Addressing the jubilant crowd, Nasrallah claimed Hezbollah still possessed some 20,000 rockets that could be launched against Israel.

While high-ranking Saudi officials in Washington denied over the weekend that such a meeting between Saudis and Israelis had taken place, Israel's influential Yedioth Aharonot newspaper reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had secretly met a member of the Saudi royal family.

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Olmert told the newspaper he was "highly impressed by various moves and statements connected with Saudi Arabia. ... I am impressed by King Abdallah's intelligence and sense of responsibility."

Another Israeli daily, Ha'aretz, quoted unnamed political sources in Jerusalem as initially confirming the main elements of the report. A report published on the newspaper's Web site suggested the Saudi official was Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia's former Ambassador to Washington. Bandar is now the national security adviser. Olmert later denied the meeting took place. But Israeli journalists say the prime minister "was not very convincing."

Saudi security officials told United Press International during a meeting in Saudi Arabia late last year that King Abdullah was convinced of two things: first that since the death of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, there was a void of leadership in the Arab world. Abdullah has ambitions to fill that void. And second, the Saudi official said Abdullah is convinced there can be no permanent solution to the Israeli-Arab dispute so long as the question of Palestine remains unsolved.

Abdullah's peace plan was adopted by the Arab League in 2002 during an Arab summit in Beirut, Lebanon. It offered Israel full recognition and peace by all 22 member states of the Arab league in return for Israel's withdrawal from all territories occupied in 1967.

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Ariel Sharon, at the time prime minister of Israel, rejected the offer.

Today, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia feel there is all the more urgency to reach a settlement in the Middle East, particularly in the aftermath of the second Lebanon war and of Nasrallah's rising popularity. A popular Hezbollah means more power to its political and military backers, Syria and Iran.

Israel's war on Hezbollah has helped make Nasrallah more powerful than ever before, rendering him into something of a cult hero in Lebanon and the Arab world.

The fear for Israel -- besides having a nuclear-armed Iran armed with missiles capable of targeting Israeli cities -- is that Hezbollah's "victory" will encourage Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

For Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, their greatest fear is to see Iran's influence in the region continue to grow. Already, Egypt announced Monday it too would begin to develop nuclear energy.

If the Saudi king is able to revive the dead Middle East peace initiative and eventually reach a comprehensive settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute, there would be no question regarding who is the most influential Arab leader.

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(Comments may be sent to [email protected].)

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