WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 (UPI) -- In the aftermath of the Lebanon war fiasco Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert realized he had gambled his political future -- and lost. And in losing his gamble, Prime Minister Olmert has come close to losing his job, a matter still very much on the cards. But the Israeli prime minister still holds an ace or two up his sleeve -- a chance to re-launch the dead peace process.
Olmert has extended invitations to both the Palestinians and the Lebanese to discuss moves towards peace, offers rejected by Lebanon but accepted by the Palestinians.
If Olmert can deliver a lasting peace with either the Palestinians or with Lebanon, a good number of Israelis will likely forget the 34-day imbroglio in Lebanon and hail the prime minister as the hero of the day. The many errors of the 34-day war meant to decapitate Hezbollah will be swept under the rug and Olmert will ride the wave of a successful negotiation.
The families of soldiers killed in the past round of fighting with the militant Shiite organization, Hezbollah, will take to the street in protest, as some have been doing, but the greater portion of the populace will be relieved that a peace settlement with the Palestinians neutralizes one more of Israel's enemies.
After Egypt and later Jordan signed peace treaties with Israel, a new peace deal with the Palestinians would represent a major improvement for Israel's security and a huge feather in Olmert's political cap. And it would possibly help erase the blunders of Lebanon 2006. Should this come to pass, it would place Olmert firmly in the driver's seat.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, considered a moderate, has accepted the Israeli prime minister's invitation to a summit meeting. Much for the same reasons, it is in Abbas' interest to conclude a working arrangement with the Israelis while Olmert is prime minister. The Palestinian Authority -- the areas in Gaza and the West Bank under control of the Palestinian government, particularly Gaza -- is in economic shambles. Unemployment is staggering and tens of thousands of government employees, who technically speaking are still employed, have gone unpaid since Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, won the majority in the January elections.
That was when Israel started withholding millions of dollars from import levies it collects on behalf of the PA, money that went to pay the tens of thousands of Palestinian civil servants.
The setting for an Israeli-Palestinian peace conference may well be the last chance to try and salvage something from the ashes of the smoldering peace process which, as Amr Mousa, the secretary-general of the Arab League, pointed out a few months ago, was dead.
Olmert's incentive to make this work is to save his political future and his legacy as a prime minister of Israel.
So what drives the Palestinians' resolve? A compelling incentive for the Palestinians to negotiate with Olmert is to imagine what would happen if Olmert's Kadima party were to be voted out of office. Chances are Likud would win and Binyamin Netanyahu would replace Olmert. That, in turn, would translate in a tougher policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians.
Netanyahu, speaking to United Press International in his office in Jerusalem last Nov. 16, said he would not "reward" Palestinian fanaticism and terrorism by giving up land. "Peace in return for peace," said Netanyahu. The former prime minister said that under his watch there would be no unilateral redeployment, no giving up land and then hoping the Palestinians would behave.
Netanyahu said he would be willing to talk peace with the Palestinian leadership, but only once it demonstrates it is capable of imposing security on areas under its control. He stressed the need for the PA to control Hamas.
Netanyahu recounted that under his leadership Israel experienced only three terrorist attacks, the lowest ever when compared with the scores of suicide bombings that have taken place under the leadership of other prime ministers.
Netanyahu said he would never negotiate with the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, better known as Hamas. "They are dedicated to the destruction of Israel." Instead, Netanyahu promises to reply to violence with a firm hand.
Hoping to help jumpstart the stalled Middle East peace talks, British Prime Minister Tony Blair flew to the region over the weekend and nudged Abbas on Sunday that the world should deal with a Palestinian unity government. The West, meanwhile, continues to boycott the current Hamas-led administration, but if a government of national unity is formed, Blair said he thought "the international community should deal with such a government."
Abbas said that Palestinian factions have been trying for several months to put together a broad coalition government, and he hoped they would accomplish the process "within the next few days."
Lebanon rejected the offer, saying it would only sign a treaty with Israel after all other Arab countries, especially Syria.
And finally, Blair, who faces his own political problems back home, would benefit from a breakthrough in the Middle East peace process.
