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Analysis: Germany aims for World Cup boost

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

BERLIN, June 12 (UPI) -- Will the FIFA Soccer World Cup, the biggest sports tournament in Germany's history, revive the country's ailing economy?

Small vendors, mid-sized businesses and big multinational corporations all hope to claim a piece of the soccer pie; even the left-right German coalition government under Chancellor Angela Merkel bets on positive impacts from the month-long tournament, and is optimistic 2006 will prove to be a turnaround for Europe's largest economy.

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The DIHK chamber of industry and trade said Monday German companies' growth expectations reached a six-year high.

"For this year, we expect economic growth of 2 percent, the highest value in six years," DIHK spokesman Axel Nitschke told German news channel n-tv, citing the World Cup, which ignites construction and tourism.

More than 1.5 million visitors are expected to flock to Germany over the next month. Berlin alone, which hosts six games, including the final on July 9, awaits 200,000 additional guests in the city's hotels.

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That number may even be topped, observers say. In Leipzig, thousands of Dutch fans wearing orange flooded the city's main square for Sunday's match between the Netherlands and Serbia-Montenegro. This past weekend, amid sunny skies and temperatures in the low 80s, some 1 million people flocked to public viewing events all over Berlin. The 'Fan Mile' around the Brandenburg Gate was bustling with fans from all over the world all weekend long.

"This really has been a dream start for Berlin," Natascha Kompatzki, spokeswoman for Berlin Tourism Marketing, Monday told United Press International. "The city has really been gripped by the World Cup fever."

She added Berlin still had some vacancies in every category among the city's 80,000 hotel beds, "but some days, such as the final, will be very busy," she said.

But apart from paying for lodging, do the fans really leave their money in the city?

On Friday, Germany played Costa Rica, and Berlin was filled with people celebrating the hosts' 4-2 victory, and, of course, spending money.

"That was my best day so far, the flow of people coming never let off," said one food stand owner located near the Friedrichstrasse subway station, who sold Currywurst (chopped up bratwurst with spicy sauce), burgers and lots of beer. "People were very thirsty," he said with a smile.

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Aside from small vendors, Germany's economy as a whole, which still suffers from relatively high unemployment of 10.8 percent (a total of roughly 4.5 million jobless), also aims to profit.

A study by the German Chamber of Commerce expects the World Cup to create 60,000 jobs.

The World Cup in and of itself will give a $24 billion boost to the economies of the 32 countries competing in the tournament, the London-based Center for Economics and Business Research said.

Due to increased consumer spending, the "biggest single boost... will be in Germany," the center said.

However just how big that boost will be remains unsure. Private and state-owned banks in Germany have forecasted the World Cup to boost the country's gross domestic product by as much as 0.5 percent. The Chamber of Commerce is more cautious, expecting a by 0.3 percent boost, while the Dresdner Bank and the German Institute for Economic Research expect the World Cup to have hardly any influence on the GDP.

"You have to keep in mind that a lot of investments have been made before the first ball was kicked," Markus Kurscheidt, a sports economist at the Ruhr University Bochum, Monday told UPI in a telephone interview. "Many jobs have been created in construction, and most of those have disappeared again."

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He added, however, that while the tournament will not create many permanent jobs, the synergtic effects should not be underestimated.

"If a person has done a good job before and during the World Cup, then the employer might keep him on board or hire him again for future events," he said.

Kurscheidt, who authored a study on the tournament's effects on the German economy, said he doesn't expect dramatic sales increases for the business in the World Cup venues.

"They will buy food and beer, and occasional fan articles, but they won't do extensive shopping," he said.

At least the country has done everything to lure the fans into buying: Most German states have prolonged their business hours; on weekdays, expect shops to be open until 10 p.m., and on Sundays -- which is unheard of in Germany -- stores are open as well.

German sponsors who aim to boost sales through the World Cup include sports giant Adidas and communications firm Deutsche Telekom, two of the 15 officials sponsors of the tournament. Six other German companies have purchased the title "national supporter" of the tournament for themselves.

It costs an estimated $55 million to be an official World Cup sponsor, and experts expect only companies to profit who have a direct connection to soccer. But these days, almost every ad in Germany seems connected to "Fussball," as the sport is called here.

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Beer brands, DIY stores, insurance companies and even grocery stores ("1-0 for freshness!") bank that the World Cup spotlight illuminates their products.

Still, there is an increased weariness over such advertising.

"Some customers say that they can't bear it anymore to receive pens with a soccer ball on them at their local pharmacy and to see balls on the beer bottles," marketing expert Markus Voeth told German broadcaster ARD.

In Berlin, Kompatzki hopes for long-lasting image gains for the city, when an expected 3 to 4 billion people watch the final game on television, played in Berlin's newly renovated Olympic Stadium.

"Berlin will be seen all over the world," she said. "For the year after the World Cup, we expect a boom in tourism."

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