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Analysis: Somalia back in the spotlight

By SANA ABDALLAH

AMMAN, Jordan, June 11 (UPI) -- Thanks to the victory of Islamic fighters, Somalia is back in the international spotlight and perhaps on its way to peace.

The success of the Islamic Courts Union in seizing control of the capital, Mogadishu, has grabbed global attention to this war-torn and impoverished country and prompted the Somali parliament to convene Sunday to discuss ending the strife with international help.

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The 275-member Parliament met Sunday in Baidoa to discuss a government proposal to invite African Unity peace-keeping troops to help disarm the militias and end the fighting.

The U.N.-backed fragile government, formed in Kenya in 2004, and parliament are temporarily based in Baidoa, 130 miles (200 kilometers) from the capital.

Somalia has been without a properly functioning government and in a virtual state of civil war among rival militias since warlords toppled the government in 1991.

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The government plan submitted to Parliament includes forming a 45,000-member Somali army that would restore security and "fight terrorism, internally and externally," and to invite peace-keeping forces from other countries, which it did not name.

Reports from Baidoa said Parliament rejected a similar government proposal 18 months ago because the majority of its members did not want troops from neighboring countries, namely U.S.-backed Kenya and Ethiopia, to be part of a peace-keeping force in their country.

Parliament is expected to vote on the proposal as it is, or amend it in a way that excludes Kenyan and Ethiopian troops, which Somalis fear their political agenda would only complicate the situation.

If endorsed, the prime minister is due to seek support from the African Unity, after which it will be submitted to the U.N. Security Council.

Sunday's development came after fighters from the Islamic Courts Union took control of Mogadishu Monday following weeks of fighting that killed more than 300 people, but reunited the city for the first time in years.

The Islamic fighters expelled a coalition of warlords calling itself the Alliance of the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism, believed to be covertly supported and financed by Washington.

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The U.S. administration sees Somalia as a haven for al-Qaida in the Horn of Africa and believes the Islamic courts are providing refuge for militants, which the tribunals have repeatedly denied.

Analysts say it is the U.S. assistance to these "secular" warlords, blamed for much of the bloodshed as they sought to grab power and resources, that has backfired and strengthened the Islamic courts.

They say these courts are not made up of fundamentalist clerics because Somalia adheres to moderate clan-based Islam like the rest of Africa. The union groups various tribal chiefs, religious clerics of different trends and businessmen who want to see an end to the fighting that continues to plunge the country into more poverty and instability.

The courts union, which includes 11 Islamic religious tribunals, are credited for having reinstated some peace and order in the capital and for providing services the powerless central government has failed to do.

Its victory in Mogadishu apparently restored hope for stability among this east African country's almost 9 million population, mostly Muslims exhausted by civil war.

Although President George W. Bush's initial reaction to the Islamic takeover of the Somali capital was antagonistic as he vowed not to let the country fall in the hands of terrorists, Washington later took a step back to reassess its strategy in Somalia that would take into consideration U.N. support.

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The United States has not had any direct involvement in the country since withdrawing its forces following the death of 18 soldiers in a 1993 attack apparently orchestrated by tribal chiefs opposed to the presence of the American forces. But the United States maintains a military task force in Djibouti to monitor the region and assists tracking down terror suspects.

Analysts say it would be best if Washington refrained from intervening in Somalia, directly or indirectly, in its war on terror if it wants to see stability return to the country, adding the country's Islamic courts pose no threat to the West.

They insist that 15 years of war and chaos would have been an ideal opportunity for al-Qaida to penetrate Somalia and impose its influence if the Somalis, especially the Islamic courts, welcomed them. But they didn't and are not expected to do that now.

Experts warn that an American intervention in the name of the war on terror would be tantamount to an open invitation to Somali cooperation with al-Qaida, threatening to turn the courts union from a clan-based system into a fundamentalist militant one.

In any case, the Islamic Courts Union seems more interested in restoring peace and stability rather than a confrontation.

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The head of the courts union, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad, welcomed a U.S. call to form an international "contact group" to support Somalia, expected to meet this week in New York.

But in a local radio interview Sunday, Ahmad also criticized U.S. support for the warlords, saying "it was wrong for America to support warlords that are unpopular within their community" and again denied the Islamic courts were harboring terrorists.

Analysts say the Islamic takeover of Mogadishu might just be what was needed for Washington to reassess its policy in Somalia -- in terms of its war on terrorism -- and to support the international community in helping the country and its government stand on their feet.

They hope that with a serious international effort, African peace-keepers and the cooperation of what seems to be a moderate, popular and organized Islamic Courts Union, Somalia might finally be on its way to peace.

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