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Analysis: Olmert ready to negotiate

By JOSHUA BRILLIANT, UPI Israel Correspondent

TEL AVIV, Israel, June 8 (UPI) -- Meetings with U.S., Egyptian and Jordanian leaders seem to have mellowed Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's talk of setting Israel's boundaries almost unilaterally, should attempts at a negotiated settlement prove fruitless.

Olmert was in Amman, Thursday, conferring with King Abdullah II. Sunday he was in Sharm-el Sheikh talking to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Last week he was in Washington with President George W. Bush and next week he will be in London and Paris.

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In recent months Olmert has been talking of setting aside time for negotiations with the Palestinians providing they recognize Israel, renounce terror, undertake to abide by past agreements and accept the internationally devised road map for peace. Those are also the demands of the Quartet -- the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations -- that devised the road map.

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The Palestinian Hamas-led government has not accepted those demands. But President Mahmoud Abbas has, and is now seeking a referendum that would give him a Palestinian mandate to negotiate with Israel.

Olmert did not say how long he would wait for negotiations. Throughout his election campaign he created the impression that the important item on his agenda is the one that would follow a conclusion that talks are hopeless. In the absence of an agreement Israel will unilaterally withdraw from parts of the West Bank and set its boundaries with the hoped-for backing of the United States, the Europeans and, perhaps, Egypt and Jordan. Not the Palestinians.

In presenting his cabinet to the Knesset last month, Olmert talked of, "Acting even without an agreement with the Palestinians... (to) correctly define Israel's desired boundaries.

"These borders must be defensible," he stressed. An official Thursday talked of establishing "permanent borders."

The Egyptians feared that could lead to a deadlock and violence that might spill across Gaza's border to their territory.

Amman has been especially sensitive since the moves would affect the West Bank, right across the Jordan River.

Jordan fears a partial Israeli withdrawal would squeeze the West Bank Palestinians into tighter spaces and make a contiguous Palestinian state virtually impossible. Living conditions would become more difficult and might induce more Palestinians to flee across the river into the Hashemite kingdom.

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As it is, more than half of Jordan's population is originally Palestinian and any solution that doesn't please those who remain in the West Bank will not please their brethren in Jordan. Violence might spill into Amman's streets, they fear.

King Abdullah II Wednesday reiterated his position in an address to graduating army officers. Jordan will never be the alternative homeland for the Palestinians, he stressed.

In an interview to the Israeli Yediot Aharonot newspaper he said the Palestinians have only one home: Palestine, and not any other place, and Jordan won't be an alternative home for anybody, he said.

The Egyptians and Jordanians signaled Olmert to go slow, try and exhaust the alternatives, noted Prof. Elie Podeh, who heads the Hebrew University's Department for Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies.

Gradually, Olmert put a greater emphasis on readiness to talk to Abbas. In closed meetings he sketched his plans should talks fail.

Thus at the press conference with Mubarak, Olmert said: "The president knows what other thoughts I have."

Mubarak and Olmert did not mention those "other thoughts" in their opening remarks. They addressed the issue only when an Israeli TV journalist asked them.

No risks were taken in Amman. The two leaders just made statements and reporters were told Wednesday that the two would take no questions.

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And so in Amman, like in Sharm el-Sheikh, Olmert talked of his intention to meet Abbas soon.

"I assured his Majesty that I intend to meet with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas in order to encourage the (peace) process and exhaust every possibility of progress in accordance with the road map," Olmert said.

Israeli specialists suggested Egypt might be more open to accept a unilateral Israeli move.

"They learnt the lesson from Gaza," one analyst who cannot be identified because of his position told United Press International. He was referring to Israel's withdrawal from the territory last September.

The Egyptians said "'No, no', and in the end cooperated. They do not want to find themselves in a similar situation once again," the source said.

The Egyptians realize their ability to change Hamas is limited. It is not clear how Abbas will emerge from the Palestinian power struggle so, "They know they are facing a real problem and they don't want to close options," he added.

Mubarak said that if negotiations fail, "We'll talk" and his Foreign Minister Ahmad Aboul Gheit told Yediot Aharonot that Egypt opposes any unilateral move "at this stage."

Abdullah was polite, but firm. "A two-state solution is the only solution that we should seek. It... must be achieved through bilateral Palestinian -- Israeli negotiations and agreements," he stressed Thursday.

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A senior Israeli official who spoke to UPI on condition of anonymity said: "I don't know if we convinced (our interlocutors)," but the idea was to "sit with each of the leaders, explain (Olmert's) plan... and remove fears (resulting from) all sorts of rumors that Israel will be moving now, unilaterally...

"It's not a plan that goes into effect immediately... (But) only after it is clear beyond any doubt that we have no partner... for a dialogue or bilateral negotiations based on the road map," he added.

Apparently the Jordanians did not want Israel to surprise them and Olmert promised as much. "We... agreed to closely cooperate and coordinate the future steps that will be taken," he said.

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(Sana Abdallah contributed to this report from Amman, Jordan.)

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