BEIRUT, Lebanon, June 5 (UPI) -- President Ali Abdallah Saleh, ruler of Yemen for 16 years, is credited for unifying the country and preserving its stability. However, widespread corruption and a longing for democracy and greater freedom have prompted the opposition to close ranks, and initiate an early start to the September presidential race. Independent candidates, including three women, are in the hunt.
Saleh has yet to indicate if he will run for a fifth term, but his ruling party, the General People's Congress, endorsed his re-election.
Prime Minister Abdul Qadir Bajamal made the announcement at a gathering with a number of Arab journalists in Sanaa on National Day, May 22, the day that commemorated the country's unification in 1990.
"Saleh is the ruling party's sole candidate. We are determined to win and we will win," Bajamal said, all while emphasizing the right of other candidates to run for the presidency.
It would need "a miracle" -- as presidential candidate Sumaya Ali Rajaa termed -- to see a new president in Yemen other than Saleh. Although Rajaa and other candidates are proceeding with their campaign to encourage Yemenis to get out of their "political apathy," change is unlikely to happen.
"Change is an accumulation process. We don't want to topple (the regime) as we know the country's conditions. We, in Yemen, have learned the lesson," said Yassin Saeed No'man, a former House Speaker in unified Yemen and a prominent leader of the opposition Socialist Party who spent nearly 10 years in self-exile in the UAE before returning to Yemen in 2003.
According to No'man, "any dramatic change" in Yemen would only lead to "a tragedy." Memories of fierce fighting that pitted the south against the north in 1990, and which killed thousands, leaving wide-scale destruction are still vivid. With that in mind, the opposition opted for what No'man termed a, "peaceful democratic struggle" to encourage the Yemenis re-engage in the country's political life.
He explained that Yemenis feel "frustrated" because of "compromise deals" that used to be struck between the ruling party and the opposition over distribution of seats in parliament.
For this year's elections, the opposition's six main groups, including the Socialist Party, Reform Party, Nasserite Union Party, Union of Popular Forces and al-Haq (Right) Party and Socialist Arab Baath Party, joined hands and issued a unified blueprint that calls for a comprehensive political reform in the country.
Fearing fraud No'man said the opposition presented "a letter of guarantee for honest elections in 2006" to President Saleh and started a dialogue with the authorities and ruling party over irregularities committed by the Elections Committee, which is entrusted to prepare for the September elections.
Thousands of eligible voters were reportedly prevented from registering while the names of dozens of thousands of dead children were included in the election register.
Bajamal rejected opposition accusations, referring "exaggerated talk about fraud" to "tribal disputes." He argued that Yemenis "need to be trained on democracy as we do not want big jumps," and emphasized his government's determination to go ahead with a comprehensive reform plan that would tackle the country's political, economic and judicial system.
Defying the opposition, Bajamal said Yemen "has nothing to hide" and extended "an open invitation to observers and all who want to supervise the upcoming elections" to come to Yemen. In 1998 observers from the European Union monitored the elections.
Bajamal welcomed a decision by three women to run against Saleh as "a democratic phenomenon" and "a sign of high overture in Yemeni society."
Many people believe the atmosphere of freedom that prevails and that has allowed opposition members and newspapers to break many taboos by being outspoken about corruption, is simply a way for the government to defuse mounting frustration.
"They have no plan to reform anything. This is just empty talk...," said No'man.
The toughest challenge, No'man said, is to fight corruption. It has become "so widespread in the country and is corrupting everything: the judicial system, political life and even our culture."
Poverty is another shaky issue. No'man said one percent of Yemenis became extremely wealthy while the remaining 99 percent live under the poverty line.
"Those who could make the change, like lawyers and journalists, live in very difficult and unstable conditions," he said.
No'man, however, added that the opposition was determined to push for democracy. He affirmed that boycotting the elections would be the "last thing we would consider."
But would the opposition succeed without outside help?
No'man strongly dismissed President Saleh's accusations that the opposition was "begging" the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa for support. He said their contacts with the Americans were mostly limited to the National Democratic Institute, a nonprofit organization working to strengthen and expand democracy.
"We have the right to contact anyone who operates in an official way and who is not banned in Yemen. If the Americans want to help us, they need to define their vision about what they want from the region," he said.
But Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Qurbi said it was clear the opposition was counting on outside parties to force change in Yemen.
"This is what most opposition forces in the Arab world suffer from. They believe that remedy will come from abroad while President Saleh always affirms that the real remedy is that we engage in dialogue on condition that it doesn't violate the Constitution," al-Qurbi told United Press International.
Referring to opposition demands to appoint another Election Committee and change the election mechanism, he said: "If we amend the Constitution to the wishes of the political parties, so there is no need for the Constitution... The People's Congress should not make any concession in this regard otherwise this would be the beginning for chaos."
Yemen, like many Arab countries, is again at a crossroad. Its options are limited and the challenges enormous: How to move towards democracy without risking chaos.
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(Middle East Bureau Chief Dalal Saoud visited Yemen recently. She filed this report from Beirut.)
