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Analysis: A long hot Afghan summer

By JASON MOTLAGH, UPI Correspondent

WASHINGTON, May 30 (UPI) -- The street violence that shook the Afghan capital Sunday heralds the tide of unrest and frustration that has swept the southern provinces of the country, where the Taliban is waging its fiercest campaign since being ousted from power five years ago by U.S.-led forces.

Buildings were burned and protesters shouted "Death to America" as riots spread across Kabul, fueled by rumors that U.S. troops had shot and killed civilians. Official reports put the death toll as high as 20 people.

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The violence, which comes as the U.S. military prepares to cede control of security duties to NATO forces, erupted following a traffic accident in which the brakes of a U.S. military truck failed, causing it to crash into 12 civilian vehicles and kill at least one person.

President Hamid Karzai denounced the mobs as "opportunists" who exploited the accident to loot businesses and stir trouble, calling them "enemies of Afghanistan." His government said "such occurrences do not represent the view of the vast majority of Afghan people or the direction of the socio-political developments in Afghanistan" in a Tuesday statement.

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But anti-American tensions have been at a simmering peak since a U.S. air strike killed 15 civilians last week in a southern village. Both U.S. and Afghan officials have blamed rebounding Taliban insurgents they say have taken entire villages hostage in a new campaign to reclaim swathes of the country lost in 2001.

More than 300 people have been killed and thousands displaced in the past two weeks as Taliban militants step up the frequency and sophistication of attacks for a summer fighting season that is only expected to intensify.

"During the upcoming months the Taliban will resort to the utmost violence to prevent reconstruction and discourage NATO countries from further deployment," Said Jawad, Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, said in an interview.

By his estimation there are 20-25 heavily armed militias operating in five southern provinces that boast some 3,000-5,000 men bent on testing the resolve of Western forces. A continued "spike in terrorist activity" is probable, "especially where NATO troops are scheduled to be deployed," he said.

The swell of Taliban activity coincides with a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops from militant strongholds in the south where NATO forces have already begun assuming security operations. The multinational force, speared by Britain and Canada, will boost troop strength to about 21,000 from 9,000 by July while the United States plans to draw down its 23,000-strong presence by 6,500.

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Afghanis living in distant provinces where infrastructure and economic opportunities have been slow to improve have "some concerns at the local level about the commitment and capability of NATO," Jawad said. "They will have to see that NATO is as committed as the United States."

The Bush administration and military commanders are confident the situation will get better even though half of the 141 American servicemen killed in action in Afghanistan since 2001 died last year.

"We are winning, but the war is not yet won," said Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, head of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, at a May 10 Pentagon press briefing. "In northern Kandahar, in northern Helmand, and in Oruzgan... the Taliban influence in certain areas is stronger than it was last year."

Fighting broke out May 18 in the southern province of Helmand when 300-400 militants bearing assault rifles and machine guns attacked a police and government headquarters. Among the 100 killed in protracted clashes with Afghan security forces were 16 police, a U.S. civilian and a Canadian female soldier.

Sixty Taliban militants and five Afghan security personnel died in another major gun battle in Uruzgan last Tuesday, according to a top Afghan military commander. Officials estimate that 200 insurgents have been killed in the region over the past two weeks in the worst fighting since the Taliban was toppled.

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Britain has dispatched more than 3,000 troops and eight Apache attack helicopters to secure restive Helmand province.

The Taliban commander in Helmand, Mullah Mohammed Kaseem Farouqi, told Britain's The Times the London by satellite phone this week: "My message to (British Prime Minister) Tony Blair and the whole of Britain is, 'Do not send your children here. We will kill them.'" He boasted of having "between 2,500 and 3,000 men (men) fighting at the moment," with "thousands more... in their homes waiting for (his) message to fight."

Farouqi also claimed to have "hundreds" of volunteers ready to become suicide bombers, a tactic new to Afghanistan that, along with a 30 percent influx of roadside bombs compared to last year, suggest imitation of the Iraqi insurgency. At least 22 suicide bombings have been recorded in the past two months.

Eikenberry said the Taliban resurgence in the southern provinces is primarily due to the fledgling Afghan government's inability to combat them, not a testament to the movement's strength.

Afghanistan's booming drug industry, which produces 90 percent of the world's opium, has funded the Taliban insurgency and compelled many disillusioned farmers who lack a viable agricultural alternative to support them.

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The Taliban has also been emboldened by more advanced weaponry and greater mobility within the country and across the porous border to terrorist safe havens in Pakistan, Ambassador Jawad said.

The international community must reinforce the capacity of the cash-strapped Afghan government to deliver services, he added, "so the presence of the state will be felt in areas experiencing attacks on their security."

Washington has spent about $1.3 billion of reconstruction projects in Afghanistan over the past four years.

Jawad said the Taliban relies on "intimidation tactics" such as hiding in villages, burning down schools and medical clinics, and killing moderate tribal leaders and clergy to create a climate of fear. This further ensured "absolutely no support for the Taliban at a grassroots level."

"Local capacity must be strengthened. Otherwise, out of fear, (Afghanis) may ignore the presence of the Taliban in their home and villages," he said.

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