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Analysis: N.Korea regulates ties with South

By JONG-HEON LEE, UPI Correspondent

SEOUL, May 25 (UPI) -- North Korea's abrupt cancellation of the test-runs of cross-border trains indicates it would like to control the speed of reconciliation and cooperation with South Korea after an apparent protest by the country's hard-line military, analysts here say.

Earlier this month, economic officials from North and South Korea agreed to test-run railways across the heavily fortified border on Thursday, in a highly symbolic event to further promote inter-Korean economic cooperation and exchanges.

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Former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung had hoped to use the cross-border railway to reach Pyongyang next month to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, a meeting expected to provide greater momentum for inter-Korean cooperation and reconciliation.

Just one day ahead of the railway test-runs, however, North Korea notified the South of its decision to scrap the plan, embarrassing South Korean officials who were hopeful that the event would help reduce military tensions caused by the nuclear standoff between North Korea and the United States.

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On Thursday, South Korea expressed its deep regret at the aborted train exercises. In a telegram to the North, the Seoul government said it was "very regrettable that the North unilaterally put off the test-runs just a day before the event."

"The responsibility for the collapse of scheduled trial runs lies in North Korea," the telegram said, urging the North to "make sincere efforts to realize the railway tests at the earliest date possible."

Vice Unification Minister Shin Un-sang also strongly criticized the North for scrapping the cross-border event, saying Pyongyang's explanation was "especially unreasonable."

North Korea cited an "unstable domestic situation" in the South, apparently referring to local elections slated for May 31, as the reason for the last-minute cancellation. It also cited a lack of an agreement between the countries' militaries to guarantee the safety of people taking part in the trial runs.

The two Koreas held military talks in the North's border town last week, but failed to reach an agreement on military guarantees of the railway test runs due to differences over the western sea border in which the two Koreas traded naval gunfire which left dozens of casualties on both sides years ago.

The two sides pushed for the test-runs without a safety guarantee from the armies, but the North's powerful military eventually derailed the plan, citing military tension across the Demilitarized Zone.

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Under the landmark summit agreement made Kim Dae-jung's visit to Pyongyang in 2000, work has been completed on laying track to reconnect the two railways that were severed more than five decades ago during the Korean War. South Korea spent 700 billion won ($738 million) on the railway reconnection.

But the cross-border railways remain idle, as the North Korean military is reluctant to agree on a security guarantee for the safety of inter-Korean travelers using the cross-border railways due to concern about possible leaks of military information.

Analysts in Seoul say the North's military is concerned that the rapid progress in inter-Korean relations may weaken its influence in the country.

The military has served as a controlling tower in North Korea ruled by Kim Jong Il's "songun," or army-first policy. The North's 1.1-million-strong armed forces, the world's fifth largest, are the backbone of Kim's iron-fisted rule.

"The North's military seeks to regulate the speed of inter-Korean cooperation in the military and security sector, while maintaining brick exchanges in the economic and social sector," said Paik Hak-soon, a North Korea expert at South Korea's private Sejong Institute.

The North's military wants to flex its muscle to cope with growing threats from the United States, he said.

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Professor Yun Duk-min of the state-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said the North's military move is aimed at gaining more concessions from South Korea and demonstrating its sharpening stance toward the United States over the nuclear standoff.

"The North's recent activities to launch a long-range ballistic missile are also aimed at putting pressure," he said.

The North has already demanded that the inter-Korean maritime border be redrawn south of the Northern Limit Line, which has served as a border since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War before it will discuss any other military matters.

In a bid to win more concessions, Pyongyang agreed Thursday to hold another round of economic cooperation talks next week to discuss economic aid to the North, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry.

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