LONDON, May 19 (UPI) -- Incoming Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi narrowly averted a political crisis Friday when he scraped through a key confidence vote in the Senate just two days after forming a fragile coalition government.
Prodi won approval for his leftist coalition by 165 votes to 155 against, securing the crucial support of Italy's seven senators for life to bolster his meager two seat majority.
He still faces a second confidence vote next week in the lower house, where defeat would force the resignation of the newly-formed government and plunge Italy back into the political deadlock which has consumed the country since the April election. Predecessor Silvio Berlusconi has only just stepped down following his initial refusal to recognize Prodi's narrow victory in the polls, which led to three weeks of political wrangling and uncertainty.
However with Prodi commanding a solid majority in the lower house, the Senate vote was seen as Berlusconi's only real chance to bring about the downfall of the fledgling government.
The former prime minister, who leads the center-right Casa Delle Liberta -- House of Liberty -- coalition, has vowed to doggedly oppose Prodi's agenda, which signals a decisive break with the policies of the Berlusconi era.
Prodi provoked uproar in the Senate Thursday when he branded the Iraq war "a grave mistake" which had had devastating consequences for global security, and pledged to withdraw the nation's troops.
While the majority of the Italian public was steadfastly opposed to the U.S.-led invasion -- the world's largest demonstration against the war took place in Rome in February 2003 -- Berlusconi, one of U.S. President George W. Bush's closest allies in Europe, sent 2,600 Italian troops to Iraq in "peace-keeping roles."
Opinion polls continue to suggest a high level of public opposition to Italy's presence in Iraq, but although Berlusconi had previously pledged to withdraw all troops by the end of the year, analysts say this was largely a campaign ploy and that much of the center-right remains opposed to any pullout, let alone the immediate withdrawal demanded by sections of Prodi's leftist coalition.
"We consider the war and the occupation of the country a grave mistake. It has not resolved -- on the contrary, it has complicated -- the security problem," Prodi declared to a stormy upper house.
"In Iraq, terrorism has found a new base and new pretexts for terror attacks both inside and outside the country," he said.
As opposition senators bellowed "shame" from all around him, Prodi strode on defiantly, insisting the war had "opened up a Pandora's box that risks igniting an entire region."
He did not set a date for Italy's withdrawal from Iraq, instead saying a technical time-frame would have to be worked out with the Iraqi authorities and with Britain and United States.
But an Italian general in Iraq, Natalino Madeddu, was quoted in Friday's Corriere della Sera newspaper as saying it was "reasonable" to consider a pull-out in 60 to 80 days.
Prodi stressed, however, that he still intended to work closely with the United States in the fight against terrorism.
"Something that struck me (in the parliamentary debate) was the discussion about the fight on terrorism, and I have to say we won't accept lessons from anyone on that," he told senators.
Berlusconi prided himself on his strong alliance with Bush, whereas Prodi is keen for Italy to collaborate more closely with the European Union on foreign policy. He told senators: "Italy must regain a strong position in Europe if it is to regain a strong position in the world."
But the new prime minister said he also had good relations with Washington, noting: "As president of the (European) Commission, I constructed, together with the United States, a network of new, strong, serious, transparent relations for the fight against terrorism."
On a domestic level, Prodi said Italy was in need of a social, economic and moral jolt to mark a clean break with the past.
He complained of a climate of tolerance towards unethical if not thoroughly illegal behavior in Italy, marked by huge conflicts of interest and shameless enrichment among the political elite.
He rejected opposition suggestions that his coalition was too weak to last, insisting it was ready to govern Italy for the next five years, in order to carry out their objectives. These include tackling economic stagnation and canceling constitutional changes carried out by Berlusconi's government.
However the tension surrounding the confidence vote, despite Prodi's eventual success, does not auger well for future votes where he will have to rely on the loyalty of a diverse array of coalition parties to get legislation past Berlusconi's deeply hostile opposition.
A junior government party, Italy of Values, threatened to vote against Prodi in protest at his decision not to appoint a cabinet minister in charge of the interests of Italians abroad. While it withdrew the threat at the last moment, the affair revealed the cracks in Prodi's coalition, which encompasses a variety of parties ranging from the center to the hard left.
Filippo Berardi, a researcher at the London international affairs think-tank Chatham House, predicted that Prodi would have difficulties in passing some legislation because of his slender majority in the Senate.
However, he told UPI he was "quite optimistic" about the future of Prodi's government. The prime minister had shored up the coalition with a variety of "smart" political appointments, and having won the confidence vote more easily than expected, would now see a calmer period, he predicted.
Prodi would make a "huge break" with the policies of Berlusconi's government, he said, and unlike his predecessor, would face up to Italy's problems rather than deny them.
Berardi did not predict any significant shift in Italy's relationship with the United States, however. "Prodi is not going to make any big break with the U.S.," he told UPI. "However the way in which he relates to Bush could change. Whereas Berlusconi's relationship with Bush was very personal, Prodi will push relations with both the United States and European Union through a much more institutional framework.
"This may not help the development of long-term cooperation between nations," he concluded.
