SEOUL, May 18 (UPI) -- Now that the United States has restored full diplomatic ties with Libya, will North Korea follow in the one-time rogue state's footsteps by giving up its nuclear ambitions to improve ties with Washington?
Both Washington and Seoul call for the defiant communist country to learn from Libya, saying it is a role model in nuclear dismantlement whose adaptability will ensure its survival. But the majority of experts in Seoul remain skeptical of the possibility that North Korea will follow suit.
The United States lifted all remaining economic sanctions against Libya this week, rewarding it for scrapping programs for weapons of mass destruction. The Bush administration also removed Libya from the list of nations that are state sponsors of terrorism, which includes North Korea.
The normalization of diplomatic ties comes after Libya admitted it had weapons of mass destruction in December 2003 and agreed to dismantle its nuclear, chemical and biological warfare programs and renounce the pursuit of such weapons.
Announcing the decision to end more than 25 years of hostility with Libya, the Bush administration said the process is an "important model" North Korea and Iran should emulate.
South Korea, which has long suffered from the North's nuclear threats, also has worked hard to turn Libya's change in behavior into a lesson for North Korea.
Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said North Korea will have a much "brighter and better" future if it gives up its nuclear weapons programs as Libya did.
"Libya has become eligible for various incentives from the United States by voluntarily giving up its weapons of mass destruction," Ban told a press conference, describing it as a good example for North Korea. "We also believe that relations between the United States and North Korea will improve for the better," he said.
Seoul has already said it is ready to play a mediating role in resolving the U.S.-North Korea nuclear standoff and provide massive economic assistance to the impoverished North if it abandons nuclear aspirations.
But talks about the North Korean nuclear problem remain stalled due to Washington's financial sanctions on Pyongyang over its alleged financial illegalities late last year.
The Kim Jong Il regime has vowed not to give up its nuclear programs, saying atomic weapons are vital to deter a possible strike from the United States which it said was pursuing a "hostile" policy against Pyongyang.
Washington wants North Korea to agree to a "verifiable and irreversible" end to its nuclear arms programs before diplomatic recognition and trade. But the North blasted the U.S. demand as a "scheme to disarm and destroy" the communist regime, saying it will never "put down our guns first" in a duel.
The row over North Korea's nuclear program erupted in October 2002, when Washington said Pyongyang had violated a 1994 nuclear freeze accord by running a secret uranium-based weapons program.
"The Libyan case offers a clue to North Korea over how it can win much-needed economic assistance and security guarantees," said Chun In-young, a Seoul National University professor.
"It is high time for the North Korean leader to make a decision," he said, noting South Korea can play a role as broker in the U.S.-North Korea nuclear dispute as Britain did in the Libyan case.
Nam Sung-wook, a North Korean specialist and professor at Korea University, said Pyongyang would study the Libyan case because the full diplomatic recognition comes just three years after Moammar Gadhafi's promise to renounce nuclear weapons.
But many experts say North Korea is unlikely to abandon its nuclear weapons before actual moves from the United States. "Hostilities between the United States and North Korea are so deep that either cannot make concessions first," Chun said.
Kim Sung-han, an analyst at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a Seoul-based government think tank, said North Korea could not abandon its nuclear programs because it believes only atomic weapons can ensure its political survival.
Without the nuclear card in hand, the North fears it has no powerful deterrent against the United States, which it believes is seeking to attack the country, Kim said.
Unlike Libya, which was in an initial stage of nuclear weapons development, North Korea is actually considered a nuclear-armed state. North Korea has also a long history of responding to outside pressures by tightening its grip on the people rather than seeking changes, experts say.
But the dilemma for the North is that its nuclear option could cause tough economic sanctions, which could lead to the breakdown of the country's already flagging economy.
If Kim Jong Il sticks to the nuclear option, he is likely to suffer the same fate as former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, as U.S. hard-liners call for regime change in North Korea to end its nuclear drive, analysts say.
