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Analysis: Olmert to outline plans to Bush

By JOSHUA BRILLIANT, UPI Israel Correspondent

TEL AVIV, Israel, May 17 (UPI) -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is due in Washington next week to begin coordinating the policies he seeks to implement in the coming years.

During the customary trip of every new Israeli prime minister, Olmert is scheduled to meet U.S. President George W. Bush on Tuesday and the pair will no doubt discuss Iran's nuclear program.

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Israel prefers a U.S.-led diplomatic effort to block Teheran. Jerusalem is troubled by the flow of arms from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon and that organization's plans to kidnap Israeli soldiers. Israel seeks stronger international pressure on Lebanon and Syria to implement U.N. Security Council resolution 1559 to "disband and disarm" the militias.

The Palestinian issue will be a key topic and Olmert is expected to outline his ideas for a unilateral withdrawal from parts of the West Bank.

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Senior Israeli officials doubted he would return with much more than declarations of support. U.S.-Israeli understandings before last year's withdrawal from Gaza took months to prepare, a diplomatic source recalled.

Olmert is nevertheless in a hurry to reach understandings because the Bush administration is friendly and its remaining two years in office "should be exhausted," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told United Press International.

The Americans and Israelis will have to iron out differences, for example on how to treat Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who wants to negotiate peace with Israel. He accepts the conditions made by the Quartet -- the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations -- for such talks.

However Israeli officials consider Abbas a lame duck. He was unable to deliver when his Fatah Party controlled the government and can do even less now that the radical Islamic Hamas controls the government.

Olmert says he will give peace talks a chance and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni Wednesday reiterated she very much wants a negotiated agreement.

Yet Olmert has not met Abbas. Defense Minister Amir Peretz conferred with Abbas during the election campaign and has advocated more talks but Olmert reportedly told Peretz to calm down.

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"This is something that has to be examined... dealt with carefully and not off handedly," Olmert told his defense minister according to the Haaretz newspaper.

The United States supports Abbas. "He remains a relevant figure," stressed the U.S. Embassy's spokesman in Tel Aviv, Stewart Tuttle. According to the Haaretz newspaper the United States is discreetly trying to strengthen the Palestinian security forces that come under Abbas' command.

French Foreign Minister Phillippe Douste-Blazy was in Jerusalem Wednesday. He said he was speaking on behalf of the European Union and the Quartet in backing Abbas' authority.

The Quartet has backed Israel's refusal to negotiate with Hamas. It reiterated its "grave concern that the Palestinian Authority government has so far failed to commit itself to the principles of nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the road map" for peace.

Analyzing the situation last week, the outgoing head of the National Security Council, Maj. Gen. (in the reserves) Giora Eiland told the Foreign Press Association, "It is quite hard to see a reasonable stable final settlement... in the foreseeable future."

Since Israel cannot resolve the conflict in the near future, it is seeking a better way to manage it, Eiland indicated.

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Many of the world's unresolved conflicts have been going on for decades, Eiland noted. The India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir has been going on for 60 years. The Israeli-Syrian dispute over the Golan Heights began 39 years ago and if it is managed successfully "both sides can live with it."

The Israeli-Palestinian dispute is different because more than a million people are living under Israeli occupation. This is not only a territorial, political dispute but also a humanitarian issue, Eiland said.

Olmert wants to allow time for a negotiated settlement, though there is no decision yet on how much. In the meantime, concrete measures ***for the day it decides to give up on negotiations are being planned.***.

"We'll decide unilaterally the location of the border, we'll complete the barrier between us and (the Palestinians)... certain changes might occur (to conform with the new boundary line) and after we do it, we will evacuate the Israeli presence, especially the civilian presence... (from the Palestinian) side of the barrier... At the end of the day there will be... two political entities," said Eiland.

Some 98 percent of the Palestinians living in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will not be under Israeli occupation, he noted.

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The move will be unilateral as far as the Palestinians are concerned, but Israel will seek the support of the Quartet and "neighbors in the area." This seemed to be a reference to Egypt and Jordan.

Some staff work has begun and Eiland said they have identified some 20 topics that must be resolved, such as how to finance the disengagement, to what line should Israel withdraw, what should it do in Jerusalem and how to consider the Jordan Valley that successive Israeli governments regarded as a security zone.

It would take months to complete the "comprehensive plan," Eiland continued.

Olmert is expected to provide Bush with the outlines of his plan and to try and to cope with international insistence that final borders must be set in negotiations between the parties. This means "Israel and the Palestinians, not the U.S.," spokesman Tuttle said.

In no way will a unilaterally declared border get international recognition, Douste-Blazy declared.

Eiland took this in stride. "There could be more than one (alternative)... to either a full recognition... or no recognition at all," he said.

"Borders should be agreed between both sides," he acknowledged. However, "If the time comes and we find no alternative but to do something unilaterally, (we) will get enough international support, because it might be the only possible way to reduce the tension between Israel and the Palestinians," Eiland predicted.

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